[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 Rush - 22 flopped boat

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($45.86)
      BB ($45.29)
      UTG ($20.89)
      UTG+1 ($21)
      CO ($30.76)
      Hero ($25.35)

      Dealt to Hero 2:heart: 2:club:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50

      FLOP ($1.85) Q:diamond: Q:heart: 2:spade:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($1.85) Q:diamond: Q:heart: 2:spade: J:club:

      UTG+1 bets $1, Hero calls $1

      RIVER ($3.85) Q:diamond: Q:heart: 2:spade: J:club: 9:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

      Villain - 67/0 (3 hands)

      QJ is on my mind obv but he can have sooo many other Qx's that a fish would play the same way?
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      he can also have there straights and ofcourse bluffs.
      Most likely hands that beat you are QJ, Q9, 99
      Hands that you beat: QK, QT, Q8, maybe also Q7s, Q6s, Q5s, KT, T8

      So, we´re really way ahead on that range 84% and should shove

      board: qdqh2sjc9s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      2h2c 84.21% 80 0
      qk, qt,q8, q7,q6,q5,Kt, T8,Qj,Q9,99 15.79% 15 0

      Even if we take out worse Qx hands, our equity is still 76%
      board: qdqh2sjc9s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      2h2c 76.19% 48 0
      qk, qt,Kt, T8,Qj,Q9,99 23.81% 15 0

      So I think we loose value in the long run if we don´t shove
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Okay, thank you ... saved some money this time, he had Q9o
      Will shove next time :s_biggrin:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      if he mostly shows you there Q9 or 99 then river shove is quite bad :D
      So maybe just calldown against unknown opponent is better play, although they should likely overbet river also with worse hands
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      if he mostly shows you there Q9 or 99 then river shove is quite bad :D
      So maybe just calldown against unknown opponent is better play, although they should likely overbet river also with worse hands
      Well no sample so hard to say yeah, he looked pretty fishy (which he obv is limp-calling Q9o, so vs this player shoving probably is good play since he'll call any Qx and str there).

      But vs unknown it seems a bit suicidal to shove there ... Anyway my gut told me to not go crazy there (again :f_biggrin: ) and I've saved/made a lot more money recently now that I've started to listen to my gut more.