[NL20-NL50] SH50 FH on R vs overbetshove

    • THESHade
      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1035941
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      BTN: $102.27
      SB: $61.09
      BB: $55.47
      UTG: $50.00
      Hero (MP): $62.48
      CO: $50.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with K :heart: K :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 8 :diamond: T :diamond: A :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) A :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.16, Hero calls $4.16

      River: ($17.07) K :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $94.11, Hero calls $54.32 all in

      28/19 f to cbet 50 raise 2times out of 10

      Is it possible to fold on R? Could he do it w Nut flush? (IMo not that often) worse FH? sure Better FH? sure Random bluff? nope
      anyway, we need to be good 43 percent of the time so I think we cant really fold here even though he msot likely has a FH aadn its quite possible that he beats us a lot becasue of the action
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      First I´d never fold river
      - he can have there lower boats and flushes
      - I´d expect a lot of players raise flop with A8/AT or 3-bet pf with AK
      - he can sometimes show up with bluff
      Although yeah it is big overbet shove I think you have to call consider that you should be ahead there quite often and if you´re going to loose then very likely AK, since I think he is not overbet shoving too often worse hands than nuts, but to have him AK is really quite rare and if he would bet standard 14$ bet you´re shoved anyway, so if you get stacked then you couldn´t really prevent it if he´d bet normal amount on the river. But right here you have option to stack his worse FH, maybe overplayed flushes and sometimes bluffs