[NL20-NL50] NL10 - TT vs. possible bluff

    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Villain was new (11 hands only) but showed signs of fishiness - 45/0/1.5/75, so I decided to call his PF raise and take my chances on OESD board. Please evaluate:

      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      Everest Poker
      8 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($15.58)
      UTG+1 ($14.07)
      MP1 ($3.82)
      MP2 ($3.35)
      CO ($3)
      Hero ($9.95)
      SB ($4.34)
      BB ($5.39)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is BTN 10:spade: 10:diamond:
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, UTG+1 raises to $1.10, CO folds, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: 9:spade: Q:heart: J:heart: ($2.45, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $2.45, Hero calls $2.45

      Turn: 3:club: ($7.35, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $7.35, Hero goes all-in $6.40

      River: 9:diamond: ($21.10, 2 players, 1 all-in)
  • 3 replies
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hello!

      When a 45/0 guy(or anyone for that matter) limp-raises from UTG alarm bells should go off, so I would definately put him on a very strong range. That said I doubt I am ever folding preflop as his 3-bet is very small and you get great odds to call for set value.

      On the flop you have 30% equity if you put him on QQ+, or just over 50% if you include AK.

      With that in mind, I think you have to either shove the flop or fold on the turn. Once the turn blanks you have very little equity against any of his made hands, and you don't have odds to call off your whole stack. His bet sizing certainly indicates a strong hand going for value and protection - I would not put him on a pure bluff, which is pretty much the only thing you can beat without improving.

      Hope it helps.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Silver you can also post hands to nl 10 section.
      Pf is standard and I´d likely played the same way. On that flop i think shove is a little better than calling flop and folding turn.
      You´re a lot of times against AA against what you have around 38% equity, but when he happens to have AK you´re really at great spot to put you money in on the flop and you don´t have to worry folding incorrectly to his turn shove
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      He did have AK in this case...