What constitutes a downswing?

    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Well I just ran into 5 straight losses, leaving me $10 down from my original $50.

      I'm playing well, I know it. I just need a break before I tilt.

      I'm playing SSS. Never got to cash from stealing blinds, as I never got to 25 bb.

      1st ss buyin: QQ, I reraise from cutoff. Three of us see a flop. Overpair for me, so I bet it. Call, call. Turn comes a blank. All-in. Snapcalls. Both of them. KK, AA. =/
      2nd ss buyin: AK, Raise from button. Flop gives me TpTk. Bet, raise, all-in. Guy hits two pair, I find out.
      3rd ss buyin: Standard cooler. Set over set.
      4th ss buyin: I get a freeplay in the bb. K8o. Flop is 835. I bet. Call. Turn blanks. All in. Call. Guy shows up with 85.
      5th ss buyin: AJ on button. Raise. SB folds, BB calls. J78. BB all-in. I call. Guy turns AK, K hits turn. Good game.

      So here's the question. How standard is a five buy-in downswing? Is it actually considered a downswing, or is it negligible? Or is it horrible luck? I've seen people say that SSS is incredibly +EV, but I'm starting to doubt. The only thing keeping me going with this is seeing the success of others using SSS.

      Anyway, thanks for your time.

      I'll be at this tomorrow. I'll try to make it back within the week.
  • 11 replies
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      you playing on the correct limit? (i think it's 5c/10c blinds, i'm not sure)

      it seems like badbeats/coolers... although i'm not too sure what you were doing with a low pocket pair with the SSS, you don't have the implied odds to limp in with them (hand3).

      like all poker strategies, +EV values can only be calculated for a very large sample size. Bad runs like that are very common.
    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Yeah 0.05/0.10. I'm buying in with $2.00

      Hand 3 was 88. Guy had TT.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      5 BI is a common downswing. Even 10 BI or more is not unimaginable.
      On lower limits with eratic play from most villains, these swings are pretty normal.

      I myself lost 10 buy ins the second part of last week until yesterday, today I regained 5 buy ins, unfortenately on a lower limit as I had to switch back.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      88 is a fold according to the SSS SHC if i recall..

      but it's still a cooler all the same, be glad you weren't playing BSS and lost 10$ on it (i would've).
    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      88-77
      Fold
      Fold
      Raise
      Raise

      I was in Cutoff.

      Thanks guys. Let's hope that 5 buyins is standard and that 25 is improbable.

      *crosses fingers*
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      my bad; has been a while... GL then. Keep it up and it'll get better :) .
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      I was up 8, now im down 13, in 10k hands. 21 down if i count from tops, with little up peak of 5 in the middle at around 6k hands. You can get 20 times like you got 5 times, its not uncommom. When you have QQ vs AK, lose, your AK lose on QQ, high pocket lose on lower to set, or str, or flush, your AA dont get paid, or run into another AA, or even break by JTs. I really think you need a LOT of hands to get into a real +. SSS has a very low bb/100 hand i am getting to believe, its mainly very good not to lose your starting capital, get the bonuses, learn about playing good starting hands, odds, etc.
      Although im not giving up until like at least 60k hands or maybe 100k, just to get a proper judge.
      And of course you making mistakes also, as everyone , like myself.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      I have had a couple of bad runs. When I first switched from FL to NL, I lost 18 buy ins in 2000 or so hands. Some of it to bad play, but mostly just bad luck. I got 16 back in the next 6000 hands.

      On Titan, I won 25 buy ins in 4.5k hands at NL20, and thought I was god. I went up to NL50, and lost 12 buy ins in my first 300 hand session. A nett loss of $20, and these weren't badly played hands, I got creamed by the poker gods.

      Variance will seem like punishment, but it isn't, it's just variance. Play a few hundred thousand hands, and be thankful you have good bankroll management. You will see a lot of it. But stay around because it goes the other way as well.
    • mashmash
      mashmash
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2007 Posts: 29
      I think losing 5 short stack buyins is pretty common, playing shortstack myself i found this to be a rather common occurrence especially when playing at low limits vs very loose opponents. Some days you will win lots of short stacks from these opponents. Even playing BSS at 100nl I have lost something like 9 buyins in less than an hour vs fish and loose opponents on a really rough day, with AA and KK not standing up to river 2 pairs, getting smacked set over set and getting sets beaten by backdoor flushes and so forth. This is why you must stick to good bankroll management cos no matter how good you are you will have tough runs but you will overcome them.
    • aanty2000
      aanty2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2007 Posts: 484
      it is not just about bad luck . i was breaking even at nl 10 or going down and i thought i was playing good but didnt have luck . after my last session i analyzed all big pots from i had in my tracker(7k hands ) . i have seen that just 30 % was pure bad beat where i couldnt do nothing ... in the other bad play and tilt was involved . my idea is that you cant lose 15 consecutive bi just by bad luck . tilt is involved a lot and bad play is the main reason i guess behind all this
    • finchybg
      finchybg
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.12.2007 Posts: 910
      Yep, the bad thing after losing 3-4 buy-ins is not that much the concrete amount of money lost, but the fact that you are tilted afterwards. And when you are tilted and don't play your game properly, sometimes these 3-4 buy-ins turn into a disaster, just because you got irritated.

      Probably that's why they say discipline, patience and controlling your emotions are the most important virtues concerning poker, more important than the mathematical part of it..