[NL2-NL10] 1 hand NL 50$ flop play aginst known opponent

    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed) by Hand Converter CG

      MP2 ($62.35)
      Hero ($8.50)
      Button ($48.85)
      SB ($84.00)
      BB ($30.00)
      UTG ($96.45)
      UTG+1 ($56.20)
      MP1 ($55.70)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J:club: , A:spade: .
      4 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

      Flop: ($4.50) 2:heart: , Q:heart: , K:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB bets $6, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $13.50

      Stats:

      VPIP 17; PFR 1%, AF - 0.35
      Called CB - 40%
      Fold CB - 40%
      Raised CB - 10%

      600 hands

      I am quite confused about this hand, at that moment I was playing 9 tables, so whole decision making process was around 5-7 seconds.

      I autmatically conti beted and realized that I commited 2/3 of my stack now. Opponent re-raises and here I decided to fold, even having 4.3:1 pot odds and commited 2/3 of stack. I decided to fold, because he raises conti bet only in 10% and very passive post flop. So i immidietly put him on very strong draw, like middle or top pair + flash draw. Therefore, I decided not to waste my 3$ left.

      Analyzing this hand afterwards I figured out that my equity against his estimated calling range (77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo) is 20% which makes it possible to call.

      Now I have two doubts:

      1) wasn`t pushing flop the best option?
      Myself I don`t think so, because given the very passive opponent I am not sure that folding equity will increase dramtically if I push instead of normal size CB. While the last will give me opportunity to save leftovers of my stack if the situation become ugly.

      2) should I call or fold?
      I guess here both options are close to correct given that we are getting enough pot odds to call. But since I had very strong reads (in my opinion) I came to conclusion that folding was the correct decision. Against random opponent I might call, though I am not a big fan of marginal situations. And I will definatelly call if I had an opposite reads.
  • 3 replies
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Even with that small sample size of your opponent, but with that stats, I would fold here after his re-raise, since he is very passive. You might have 7 good outs here, unless your opponent is not holding Two Pair or better.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      thanks for reply, I have now another question)

      what is considered to be a solid sample size of the opponent? I mean for making precise decisions, like restealing blinds, etc

      And about pushing flop? I found no reason pushing here, since he is to passive, but against more loose-agressive opp. there might be a reason to push when after conti bet you`ll get pot odds more than 4:1 in case he re-raise?
      At least at makes sense for me if you are intended to call... the problem is most of the times I have no clue whether I am intended or not) so I guess I have to start conti betting less automatically
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Originally posted by xylere

      what is considered to be a solid sample size of the opponent? I mean for making precise decisions, like restealing blinds, etc
      When you had 40-50 cases where he was attacked in the Blinds and folded, or when he made the attempt to steal, you have a tendency. So I guess you need at least 1-2k to a get a tendency for these stats. So a couple of thousand hands would be better, but hard to achive. When you have reach a higher limit where you feel comfortable and have no urge to move up more, then you will get enough hands from your opponents to get quite good stats about them.