[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - 77 - Quads - River bet sizing

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($52.05)
      BB ($241)
      UTG ($44.70)
      Hero ($68.30)
      CO ($84)
      BTN ($50)

      Dealt to Hero 7:diamond: 7:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) A:diamond: 7:club: A:club:

      Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

      TURN ($10.25) A:diamond: 7:club: A:club: 7:spade:

      Hero bets $7.25, CO calls $7.25

      RIVER ($24.75) A:diamond: 7:club: A:club: 7:spade: 4:diamond:

      Hero??

      Villain is a reg with whom I have some history (he sees me as quite bluffy, I believe). 23/20/2 wts 34, 1.1k

      I am not sure how much to bet on the River or if it even matters (I feel if villain has Ax here he will shove over my bet), but theoretically villain can have some other pairs which he could call if we bet size appropriately since it's also difficult for me to have a strong hand on this board.

      thoughts?

      Thanks
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      shove river
      I think he is not going to shove Ax hand, simply because worse hands won´t call, but he is going to call shove always with Ax, since only one hand 77 would beat that, you can try to force him out for chop or making some kind of crazy play with busted draws
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Why isnt he shoving river if we bet, say, pot? It doesnt matter if no worse hands call becuase he has the effective nuts.

      If I ever have 7x I'm going to find it difficult to fold to a shove. And even if I bet/fold river, villain loses nothing by shoving over our bet).

      Villain isnt going to say "I wont shove because I split with Ax", he will say "I shove because I have the best possible hand (effectively) and I lose nothing by shoving but gain if villain has a 7 in his hand."

      Anyway, you dont think he calls any size bet without an Ace?
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      You are right, betting small >>>> shoving.

      I like $9.50, but impossible to say what's optimal.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Why isnt he shoving river if we bet, say, pot? It doesnt matter if no worse hands call becuase he has the effective nuts.

      If I ever have 7x I'm going to find it difficult to fold to a shove. And even if I bet/fold river, villain loses nothing by shoving over our bet).

      Villain isnt going to say "I wont shove because I split with Ax", he will say "I shove because I have the best possible hand (effectively) and I lose nothing by shoving but gain if villain has a 7 in his hand."

      Anyway, you dont think he calls any size bet without an Ace?
      if you bet smt like 9$ he may call you down 88/99. I would expect a lot of players would then maybe call you down if they reached that far, but if you bet 12$ or more then very likely only Ax would call you down. He might raise that hand, but very often I think you may see also see just calls, since good players won´t really b/c river with 7x that often and why build the pot if he is chopping or loosing to quads if get called. Against fish, sure they might shove, since he can b/c with worse hands, but against regulars I´m not that sure.

      Edit: anyway I think his range on that point is mostly flushdraw or Ax and you get most value against that range by shoving river