Equity simulation: Starting hands question

    • Waiboy
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

      376,992 trials (Exhaustive)

      QdJdQsJh__34.36% (129,534 wins, 0 ties)
      Kh7h8s6s _32.48% (122,455 wins, 0 ties)
      Ks2sKdJc __16.18% (60,788 wins, 420 ties)
      AcKc8c2c __16.98% (63,795 wins, 420 ties)

      Sorry if this is too obvious but I found this simulation odd and wanted a better understanding of it before I start getting frisky in multiway pots.

      I was suprised at how strong the K:heart: 7:heart: 8:spade: 6:spade: hand's equity is four way. Even if the mono suited hand (awesome btw) is turned to double suited AA** (where it doesn't dominate the Khi FD) it still has 28% equity, and actually becomes stronger than the QQJJs hand.

      I guess it's primarily because of live outs around the three connected cards? If that is the case, in an aggressively played multiway pot, is it reasonable to get the money in with only three connected cards and a 2nd nut FD?

      Or should we be worried about a hand like AA** where the Khi FD is dominated often enough to fold the hand?

      ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

      376,992 trials (Exhaustive)

      QdJdQsJh __28.24% (106,118 wins, 662 ties)
      Kh7h8s6s __20.31% (76,579 wins, 0 ties)
      Ks2sKdJc ___12.50% (46,785 wins, 662 ties)
      AhAc8h2c __38.95% (146,848 wins, 0 ties)
  • 3 replies
    • morris979
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 98
      Speaking as a relative beginner, if there's one thing that I've got nailed so far in this game then it's that in multi way pots where there is a lot of action you MUST draw to the nuts.
      If you get the money in 3way with your Kh7h6s8s on say a Jh4h5c board (2nd nut fd & a wrap) which looks pretty strong more often than not youre going to be up against one guy with the nut flush draw & another with a set or even the same straight draw. Either way youre struggling for the required equity.
      Heads up its a different story, just be very careful stacking off with hands like these multiway.
    • falcone1983
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      This might be obvious, but a lot of it depends on stacksizes, and, indirectly related to stacksizes, how the money goes in.

      There's a difference between "UTG raises, Hero 3bets, BU 4bets, BB cold5bet-shoves" and "UTG raises, call, call, call, Hero 3bets, UTG makes committing 4bet, call, call".

      In the first case, you're always up against Aces, most of the time probably twice. In the second case, if UTG happens to do this with good Kings or like AKQTds, you may have nice equity.
    • Ribbo
      Joined: 25.06.2010 Posts: 6,157
      You can work out in a 6 max game how often someone will have a nut flush draw vs your second nut flush.

      20 cards are dealt out between the other players.

      We have 4 cards, so there are 45 unknown cards, one of which is the ace of hearts (for example).

      So someone being dealt the ace of hearts is 20/45 then the chance of it being suited is roughly 45%.

      So assuming anyone with the nut flush draw will call preflop (nobody folds a suited ace in omaha right?!?!) :f_biggrin: it's around 20% that one of the other players on the flop will have the nut flush draw.

      ( Of course you can work this out perfectly, but I don't have the time to do some combinatorics right now. :f_biggrin: )

      My point is 20% of the time with your draw you will be crushed multiway and the other 80% of the time, you're absolutely fine with K876. However we can make another claim that if other players shove, it increases this 20% chance that the nut flush draw is out there. :s_cool: