[NL20-NL50] NL100 SH - Rush 44 oop - river bluff

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.90)
      Hero ($131)
      UTG ($292)
      UTG+1 ($100)
      CO ($62.50)
      BTN ($190)

      Dealt to Hero 4:club: 4:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $3, fold, Hero calls $2

      FLOP ($6.50) J:spade: 5:diamond: 5:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4

      TURN ($14.50) J:spade: 5:diamond: 5:club: 3:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $10, Hero calls $10

      RIVER ($34.50) J:spade: 5:diamond: 5:club: 3:heart: A:diamond:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $23, [color=red]Hero raises to $50...

      villain reg 27/24/9 wts 21, 287 hands, stl 49. Is river a decent spot to turn our hand into a bluff against this aggressive opponent with very loose steal range? I figured unless villain has AJ exactly he has to fold since I doubt he 3 barrels with Ax where as we can have AJ or JJ here.

      Reasonable?

      Villain has to fold 46% of the time.
  • 6 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Fold pre (and yes I'm serious), maybe fold flop since you won't get too many free showdowns here, definitely fold turn.

      As played, river is w/e. Don't forget that he can have a 5 here quite easily.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      If villain is stealing 49% I feel not playing 44 here is a leak. I agree 3betting may be preferable, but just folding seems too weak. I probably should have provided his fold vs 3b stat, which for this villain is 83%

      Ofc villain can have a 5/AJ. But he can also have KJ/QJ/TJ/9J/air/77/88/QQ/KK and a whole host of other hands that have to fold to a river raise.

      Im not saying that the raise is good, just that we cant put villain on the one hand that always calls us when deciding whether to make the play.
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,275
      I think most of the time he has a made hand here mainly because he is betting the turn which is a 3 and he doesn't make you fold anything at all.So i like raising river bigger because he will find a lot of pot odds to call you down and catch you bluffing or even if he is weak he can say : well i call him it's only 26 ~ to win 100~ .But most of the time i think folding turn is mandatory.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ok, thanks for that. What do you think of preflop?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      pf call is fine, you can also 3-bet, but being oop and a littlebit deep i think he is going to 4-bet or flat quite often
      I would usually lead myself on the flop, turn and c/f river, but if you want to turn your hand into bluff catcher I guess it is fine. Just I don´t think he is barreling turn too often, so fold would likely be better. A lot of times I don´t expect him to valuebet Jx on the river, so his very likely hand are Ax or+ or air.
      If you´re going to c/r to 50$ I think Ax hands would call you down, so you should make river c/r imo to 70$ to force him folding all expect 5x+
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,275
      Also wanted to add that he is way super polarized between Ax / 5x because I think he is going to check back river with all his Jx(or might not ?)and 66-KK and I think he will find a call 100% of the time if he bet river(if you raise so small)