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[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - AQs 3b pot nfd on flop -120bb

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($62.10)
      BB ($21.65)
      Hero ($59.25)
      UTG+1 ($73)
      CO ($156)
      BTN ($54.90)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $5.75, BB calls $5.25, Hero calls $4

      FLOP ($17.25) 8:heart: 5:diamond: J:heart:

      SB bets $12.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $53.50 (AI), SB calls $41

      TURN ($124) 8:heart: 5:diamond: J:heart: 5:spade:

      RIVER ($124) 8:heart: 5:diamond: J:heart: 5:spade: Q:diamond:

      I think preflop is ok. SB is aggressive reg: 24/19/3 wts 33, 750hs.
      Is flop shove ok here vs his entire range?

      I think most of the time when we are called we see AA/KK/QQ (I assume villain is mostly not 3b our utg oR with JJ). We get 44% eQ vs this range (40% if we include JJ).

      With dead $ we need only 43% eQuity, so once we include some hands villain can fold like AKs, it looks +EV to me. Anyone disagree or think we can take a different line?
  • 4 replies