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[NL2-NL10] NL2 KQo overcards facing all-in from shortstack

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.85 by

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K:diamond: , Q:spade:
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, BU folds, SB calls $0.09, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.26) J:diamond: , 8:diamond: , 4:club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.14, SB raises to $0.49 (All-In), Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      Final Pot: $0.54

      I thought this was completely standard, until looking back on it I wondered whether I can find a call here given that he is a shortstack all-in. I need to call an extra $0.35 to be in a total pot of $1.24, so I need 28% equity (is this correct?).

      It feels unlikely he has a set (QQ-AA would have raised preflop, and 88/44 did not have the right setmining odds to call preflop), so we are looking at something like AJ or a flush draw. Against these I maybe have roughly the right equity already, and obviously if he has bluff / overcards in his range it could tip the balance. I don't have any reads on him (only 15 hands, but has seemed sane so far).

      Do you think I could have found a call, or did I make the right fold?

  • 3 replies
    • fryandspicy
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 440
      I think you need slightly less equity than you calculated.
      1.24/0.35 = 3.54(to 1)
      100/1+3.54 = 22(% equity)
      I think.

      If both of your overcards are live you have the odds as you only need 3.1-1 odds to call. I still think it's a fold as some of the time he'll have you dominated and some of the time he'll have a set. He knows his fold equity is low too, right?
    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Hmm, I still think I was right on the equity I need because the pot is $1.24 after I put the extra $0.35 in. Current bets plus dead money equals $0.89, so the odds are 0.89:0.35 = 2.54 to 1 and the % equity is 100/(1+2.54) = 28%.
      Maybe we'd better wait for the judge to comment!

      Of course, if we need 28% equity then this makes your conclusion even more correct that it is a fold.

      Thanks again.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello member001,

      Yes, the equity calculation is correct and Bet/Fold would be my line there since:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 76,963% 76,963% 0,000% 23,037% 44, J8s+, T8s, 98s, J8o+, T8o, 98o
      Player 2: 23,037% 23,037% 0,000% 76,963% KQs, KQo

      As you see I put a small range what such a loose opponent could have and didn't put everything but still, against such a range we only getting 23%.

      Best regards.