[NL20-NL50] JQ vs utg nit nl50

    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      villian plays 12/11/4.9aggr, WTS 13% and has 12% pfr UTG over 600 hands.
      i'm turning my hand into a bluff on the turn as i know i cant call since i'm pretty beat. quite sure this is a profitable bluff spot and he has to give up a big big part of his range. opinions?


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($63.65)
      BB ($53.40)
      UTG ($50.75)
      UTG+1 ($49.25)
      UTG+2 ($58.50)
      CO ($64.50)
      Hero ($57.20)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold

      FLOP ($3.75) 5:heart: 5:spade: J:heart:

      UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($7.75) 5:heart: 5:spade: J:heart: 4:heart:

      UTG bets $4.50, Hero raises to $12, UTG calls $7.50

      RIVER ($31.75) 5:heart: 5:spade: J:heart: 4:heart: 9:club:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $35.50, UTG calls $35.25 (AI)
  • 7 replies
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      the only problem with turning your hand into a bluff is that there are no 5x in your range so the only value hands u can have is JJ and flush. He might think u r doing this with a one card FD so he might be tempted to call off. I prefer to just fold preflop and as played fold turn.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      @i5bet72o: i disagree with ur analysis. i definitely have 5x in my range, he has none. i can flat A5s 45s 56s 57s and even 55 since i pretty widely on BU. folding pre is abit nitty, we have position and two suited connectors that has great playability postflop
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      not really sure you would raise 5x on the turn since it is hard to get called by worse hands. I think very often if he is going to b/c turn he would c/c river, since I think he would never fold there flush+ and not sure about QQ-AA with flushdraw. But these are only 3 hands so I wouldn´t worry too much getting fold from them. What I would do:
      - very likely raise flop, since that would I play 5x and if get called then very likely try to check it down or
      - if I would raise turn, then check back river, since you have showdown value and very often he is not folding better hands
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      not really sure you would raise 5x on the turn since it is hard to get called by worse hands. I think very often if he is going to b/c turn he would c/c river, since I think he would never fold there flush+ and not sure about QQ-AA with flushdraw. But these are only 3 hands so I wouldn´t worry too much getting fold from them. What I would do:
      - very likely raise flop, since that would I play 5x and if get called then very likely try to check it down or
      - if I would raise turn, then check back river, since you have showdown value and very often he is not folding better hands

      i'm not too sure he's capable of considering my turn raise means i hardly have a 5x since his stats and the no. of hands i have on him indicates he's pretty weak player.
      he could also think that i might raise 5x on turn as a desperate value raise from a slowplayed hand gone bad on turn.
      i also rep the flush and fullhouse so well, i don't expect him to call anyworse than a flush. he could also call down the turn with flush redraws AJ KJ or QQ+ and fold the river when miss. raising turn and trying to check behind to showdown is cheaper than calling down to river, but is that ever good in this spot since we're almost always never good on the river?
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Pre is fine/standard.

      Calling flop is fine/standard too. Raising would be awful. You're never ever going to be called by worse, so you're just raising for info, which is bad.

      On the turn I agree that you can't really call. You could obviously just fold. If you raise, I'd make it a bit bigger so you set up a better stacksize for the river. I think his range for bet/calling the turn is something like JJ/55/44, AA/KK/QQ/AJ with a heart. Flushes he would normally shove, and overpairs without a heart he should fold (he would, right?).

      So that leaves 11 combo's of one pair hands in his river range and 4 combo's of boats, so I think he folds enough (even if he calls all his AA and folds the lower overpairs/top pairs, it's still a break even shove).

      If you think he might bet/call turn with flushes, it quickly becomes -EV though.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      not really sure you would raise 5x on the turn since it is hard to get called by worse hands. I think very often if he is going to b/c turn he would c/c river, since I think he would never fold there flush+ and not sure about QQ-AA with flushdraw. But these are only 3 hands so I wouldn´t worry too much getting fold from them. What I would do:
      - very likely raise flop, since that would I play 5x and if get called then very likely try to check it down or
      - if I would raise turn, then check back river, since you have showdown value and very often he is not folding better hands

      i'm not too sure he's capable of considering my turn raise means i hardly have a 5x since his stats and the no. of hands i have on him indicates he's pretty weak player.
      he could also think that i might raise 5x on turn as a desperate value raise from a slowplayed hand gone bad on turn.
      i also rep the flush and fullhouse so well, i don't expect him to call anyworse than a flush. he could also call down the turn with flush redraws AJ KJ or QQ+ and fold the river when miss. raising turn and trying to check behind to showdown is cheaper than calling down to river, but is that ever good in this spot since we're almost always never good on the river?
      He may b/c turn with just A or K high flushdraw, so you´re not always beat on the river, just if you shove you´re expecting him to fold AhJx, QhQx, KhKx, AhAx and I´m not sure he is folding there QQ-AA to your river shove, since you´re not raising turn in my eyes (which probably also mean in his eyes with 5x), so that leaves some combos flushes that you decided not to raise on the flop, although most of the times I´d expect aggressive players attack that board with good flushdraws and 55/JJ that could also slowplay turn. If he is suspicious and thinking you´re making move he would call you down if he is scared money then he would fold. Since you have played him 600 hand I think you can decide likely better if river shove works enough times that he would be profitable.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by falcone1983
      Pre is fine/standard.

      Calling flop is fine/standard too. Raising would be awful. You're never ever going to be called by worse, so you're just raising for info, which is bad.
      Well here I disagree. Sure calling is standard and you don´t get blown off the better hand, but really which hands would 3-bet me on the flop. A high flushdraw and sometimes 5x. He is not 3-betting flop with AJ+, since he ends up being against 5x too many times and also he would very likely b/c with lower flushdraws, overpairs, since I´m either have A high flushdraw or 5x.
      So basically I would raise for value, don´t have to worry about 3-bet bluffing on that board and if he b/c then I can always decide on the turn what I would want to do with my hand. So imo raising ip can´t really be bad if you don´t expect players to play back to you with worse hands