[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max Rush, On the river - clearly beat, but have ton of outs

    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      All right, so this one was a really tough decision for me. Opponent is basically unknown - 10 hands, 44/22/-. Got a check/minraise on the flop, which in many occasions means "I have the nuts, please don't fold!". Of course it would be pretty silly to put the opponent only on TT here. It might very well be a flush or straight draw, or also trip J with worse kicker (and even AJ is very possible). I raise it only 3 times because I basically realized we're going to shove it on the flop and just wanted to leave him the chance to bluff (although it would be a terribly bad idea, but you can expect anything from a fish if he's one of them). Surprisingly he just calls and the flush and a straight for KQ completes. I'm totally sure I'm beat at this point, basically put him on a flush - you know, flush in microlimits is a holy hand, impossible to make someone fold his draw. But I have 17 outs against the flush only! Not to mention weaker hands that he may be "protecting" now (trip J for example). Of course calling here would be obviously bad, so the question is - to shove or not to shove? Considering he calls my shove I need to invest 12,1$ to win 30,9$, so I need at least 39% equity to make this move profitable. If he actually has a flush, I have 34% equity. Close decision, but I guess.. Crying shove?

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      CO ($46)
      Button ($5.85)
      SB ($15.40)
      BB ($6.90)
      Hero (UTG) ($24.22)
      MP ($10)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
      Hero bets $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.70) 10, J, J (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2

      Turn: ($6.70) 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $6.70, Hero ???
  • 4 replies
    • funktor
      funktor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 922
      Hi Bliausmas!

      I do not have equialator with me, but you cannot fold, as you have trip+top kicker and nutflush draw.
      Go for it and ship it in. You will see FH/str8/flush sometimes. You can have sometimes crushed Jx: hands and equity wise you should be at least break even to his range. Sometimes he will have JQ or JK and in that case you will not be happy of additional bet when 8 or Q will show up on turn.

      With the size of the POT to reamining stacks he cannot fold most of his hands unless it is pure bluf.

      Regards

      Funktor
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Bliausmas,

      Since we are against pretty unknown it's more harder to put him on a hand and he can easily do that with any kind of Jx, maybe even OP, straights, flush and also FH. But however a small % of his line could also be bluff so it could be also possible to just Call the turn and let him continue his bluff on river but it ain't wrong to just shove directly on turn. Just curious what did he have? But however, yes this is a crying shove but I really can't find fold here.

      Best regards.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Hey guys,

      Thank you for your encouraging answers :)
      Just want to make some notes about opponents range. I exlude all the full houses from his range because I think he wouldn't play them like this. The turn completes like a million draws and he makes pot size bet? That's way too much for a full house, it seems more like he's protecting here. I would expect small (1/3 - 1/2 pot size) bet here or even check as "giving up" from a full house. Of course I may be wrong here as he may find some nines in his pocket or smth like that. Some opponents are really unpredictable in microlimits and can play bottom pair in a similar way.

      And my opponent appeared to be the :f_eek: as he had 8 :club: 4 :club: here. Thank god I sucked out on the river :D
    • funktor
      funktor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 922
      ;) I know the feeling remember situations... no, he cannot have that 73 that just completed runner runner gutshot... I have to call his shove...

      and Yes, he had it :P .

      Funktor