calling Slightly negative ev situations

    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      So the question i have here is consider that we know exactly our ev in this spot and we are put to a binary decision whereby calling results in a slightly negative ev while ev of folding is 0. Eg we have 25% ev. But villian bets allin givin us pot odds of 26% ev.Call or fold? If u call, What is your threshold then for calling? If u fold, would u also fold to -0.1% ev? Or even -0.01%ev?
  • 19 replies
    • THESHade
      THESHade
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      Joined: 25.03.2010 Posts: 5,418
      if u know exactly (on 100 percent) that call is -EV than u should fold for sure
      if u estimate hs range and it looks like its slightly -EV I woudl call cause he may show up w wider range -> it becomes +EV
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      even if its 0.01% negative EV?
    • THESHade
      THESHade
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      Originally posted by supeyrio
      even if its 0.01% negative EV?
      when u know it for 100 percent than yes
      but as I said, u never know cause poekr is a game of incomplete info
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Depends on if it will give you any indirect benefits
    • THESHade
      THESHade
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      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Depends on if it will give you any indirect benefits
      there are no benefits when u know opponents handrange all the time ...
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
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      Originally posted by THESHade
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Depends on if it will give you any indirect benefits
      there are no benefits when u know opponents handrange all the time ...
      It can be useful to build up an image or some kind of dynamics that you can take advantage of later.
    • THESHade
      THESHade
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      Originally posted by Dublimax
      Originally posted by THESHade
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Depends on if it will give you any indirect benefits
      there are no benefits when u know opponents handrange all the time ...
      It can be useful to build up an image or some kind of dynamics that you can take advantage of later.
      U wont get that by sligtly -EV call cause he would view that just as a standard play
      + u know his range .... there is nothing he cna do but lose
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      I don't see the argument for calling if it's even -0.00000001% EV
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      @ihufa: because it's ultimately close to 0 EV. and while EV is long run expected value, calling may result in a positive variance. and since it's so close to netural EV, we also lose minimal in the long run by making this play.

      so in a game, assuming villian raised 1BB more than what we could actually called. we're going to say " if u raise 1BB lesser i would have called"? ofc the continual assumption that we know the exact odds.
    • sapheal
      sapheal
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      Joined: 23.02.2008 Posts: 1,015
      Originally posted by supeyrio
      So the question i have here is consider that we know exactly our ev in this spot and we are put to a binary decision whereby calling results in a slightly negative ev while ev of folding is 0. Eg we have 25% ev. But villian bets allin givin us pot odds of 26% ev.Call or fold? If u call, What is your threshold then for calling? If u fold, would u also fold to -0.1% ev? Or even -0.01%ev?

      supeyrio :heart: ,


      Indeed, a brilliant question! Of course, making more calls make aggressive players less likely to bluff against us. This implies that we're going to face more thin value bets from our opponents on the river.

      Mathematically, I cannot perfectly address the issue because it probably requires months of analysis. But, yes, you are right that

      because it's ultimately close to 0 EV. and while EV is long run expected value, calling may result in a positive variance. and since it's so close to netural EV, we also lose minimal in the long run by making this play.


      I'd say - if this is heuristically increasing your winrate, then I'd opt for doing it. If you want to calculate, you need to understand the types of spots you're making calls with, evaluate the number of those types of spots within the number of all possible spots, find how much on average you lose in a spot and then calculate the same (in some way) regarding your advantages - in what spots and how much on average you're going to win.

      Cheers,
      Michal
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Interesting questions.

      In a vacuum with 100% accuracy you should obviously fold in a negative ev spot, regardless of how close the equity is.

      In practice I think it's a matter of style. Folding is always going to be lower variance.....but some players like to gamble. As for the threshold - since you are willingly deviating from the mathematical optimum, this threshold has to be a matter of personal choice. You can calculate the amount of big blinds this will effectively cost you and decide whether you consider it acceptable.

      However, we don't play in a vacuum, nor can we analyse the EV of a situation with such precision. Whether you choose to call in such close spots is a matter of style, and other considerations such as table image and the propensity to tilt others. For example, if making a thin call will result in less bluffs against you in the future, the decision could be considered +ev even if -ev in a vacuum.
    • sapheal
      sapheal
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      Originally posted by w34z3l
      In a vacuum with 100% accuracy you should obviously fold in a negative ev spot, regardless of how close the equity is.

      w34z3l

      The thing is that it is untrue. Of course, you need to take +EV decisions. But, taking the best line doesn't mean the way we played certain street is the best play on the certain street. It is all connected with our strategy.

      As mentioned in the example - if you call a little bit more in close spots, you will not get bluffed out very often, so you will face more thin value bets and less bluffs.

      The key is to increase the long-term winrate. This is the goal.

      Of course, the term used by supeyrio is not perfect, as it does not change variance. But making slightly ev- moves, we might lead to more +EV spots according to our gameplan. This is the case.

      Hope I've stated everything clear :)

      Cheers,
      Michal
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      @Sapheal

      I don't really see how what you are saying differs from what I said.

      Originally posted by sapheal

      But, taking the best line doesn't mean the way we played certain street is the best play on the certain street. It is all connected with our strategy.
      Indeed, but the question doesn't necessarily involve strategy. This was coined a "binary" decision, where in a vacuum calling is -ev.


      Originally posted by sapheal
      But making slightly ev- moves, we might lead to more +EV spots according to our gameplan.
      Exactly what I said....we don't play in a vacuum.
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      nice bump on a thread >6months old.
      whats even nicer is there are even better answers.
      kudos guys. :D
    • sapheal
      sapheal
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      w34z3l ,

      Okie, I just probably didn't fully understand the reference to 'in a vacuum'. If yes, then great :)

      Cheers,
      Michal
    • ZhiCheng
      ZhiCheng
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      well, if u r running good atm, u shld call.. cuz results are all that matters after all :s_evil:
    • goldchess
      goldchess
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      Don't forget about rake :)
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Also for instance if your playing a fish headsup who you think you have a huge edge against but he's only bought in for say 50bb, its not too bad to take a -1%EV call since if you double him up you get to play deeper and realise more of your edge. and inversely, if your both around 500bb deep and you can make a +1%EV call you might want to give it up since you wont be able to play so deep for quite a while after this pot if you call.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
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      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      Originally posted by Jan217
      Also for instance if your playing a fish headsup who you think you have a huge edge against but he's only bought in for say 50bb, its not too bad to take a -1%EV call since if you double him up you get to play deeper and realise more of your edge. and inversely, if your both around 500bb deep and you can make a +1%EV call you might want to give it up since you wont be able to play so deep for quite a while after this pot if you call.
      Or he might hit and run.