Ax EP pushes -EV?

    • Tibovw
      Tibovw
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2010 Posts: 1,994
      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      8 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (885)
      UTG+1 Suranna (2,090)
      MP1 Pedoiss (1,380)
      MP2 Drme17 (2,245)
      CO hoepfigheimer (2,470)
      BTN Mvv500 (1,965)
      SB AXSO--SA-- (1,340)
      BB pluto_cp (1,125)

      Blinds: 120/240

      Pre-Flop: (360, 8 players) Hero is UTG A: :6s:
      Hero goes all-in 885, 6 folds, pluto_cp calls 645

      Flop: Q: :5s: :3d: (1,890, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: :7c: (1,890, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: T: (1,890, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: 1,890
      pluto_cp shows two pair, Sevens and Fives
      :7s: :5h:
      Hero shows Ace Queen high
      A: :6s:

      pluto_cp wins 1,890 (net +1,005)

      Hero lost 885




      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,380)
      UTG+1 APECT13 (4,170)
      CO tocso8301 (1,640)
      BTN jappie BigMouth (1,990)
      SB Jack_Rols (3,495)
      BB CapnSlim (825)

      Blinds: 150/300

      Pre-Flop: (450, 6 players) Hero is UTG A: :4d:
      Hero goes all-in 1,380, 5 folds

      Final Pot: 1,830

      Hero wins 1,830 (net +450)




      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,040)
      UTG+1 campamaster (2,644)
      MP1 Majubiese (1,170)
      MP2 Coexistance (1,660)
      MP3 lordluggi (1,051)
      CO tocso8301 (1,520)
      BTN pinkfloyd3 (1,030)
      SB Rkid1010 (1,165)
      BB dinyatt (2,220)

      Blinds: 100/200

      Pre-Flop: (300, 9 players) Hero is UTG A: :9c:
      Hero goes all-in 1,040, 8 folds

      Final Pot: 1,340

      Hero wins 1,340 (net +300)





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      7 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,030)
      UTG+1 real_dealieo (2,095)
      MP Leah Costello (2,060)
      CO Pahkiko (3,330)
      BTN LCMONEY22 (390)
      SB hobo frohike (1,020)
      BB i_raise_u_maybe (3,575)

      Blinds: 100/200

      Pre-Flop: (300, 7 players) Hero is UTG A: :4h:
      Hero goes all-in 1,030, 6 folds

      Final Pot: 1,330

      Hero wins 1,330 (net +300)





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,130)
      UTG+1 jay jay 030 (2,305)
      CO Niels de Ree (1,455)
      BTN starend (2,235)
      SB Shmucc (2,735)
      BB VESLO79 (3,640)

      Blinds: 80/160

      Pre-Flop: (240, 6 players) Hero is UTG A: :4d:
      Hero goes all-in 1,130, 2 folds, starend calls 1,130, 2 folds

      Flop: :5h: :5s: :3d: (2,500, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: K: (2,500, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: A: (2,500, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: 2,500
      Hero shows two pair, Aces and Fives
      A: :4d:
      starend shows two pair, Aces and Kings
      A: K:

      starend wins 2,500 (net +1,370)

      Hero lost 1,130





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      7 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $5 + $0.50 Madness

      Stacks:
      UTG ArobPSU03 (2,820)
      UTG+1 Hero (1,085)
      MP noelangel1024 (1,950)
      CO bigredpkr (595)
      BTN BRBarker917 (1,620)
      SB tushkanchik (3,755)
      BB alexlevi20 (1,675)

      Blinds: 100/200

      Pre-Flop: (300, 7 players) Hero is UTG+1 A: :7c:
      1 fold, Hero goes all-in 1,085, 5 folds

      Final Pot: 1,385

      Hero wins 1,385 (net +300)





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Madness

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,055)
      UTG+1 mikeexvu (2,115)
      CO zojakww (2,280)
      BTN Jtiltzfk (2,670)
      SB 2smart4U7414 (3,870)
      BB Doghammer (1,510)

      Blinds: 80/160

      Pre-Flop: (240, 6 players) Hero is UTG :9c: A:
      Hero goes all-in 1,055, 2 folds, Jtiltzfk calls 1,055, 2 folds

      Flop: :3d: :4h: :8c: (2,350, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: Q: (2,350, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: :7h: (2,350, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: 2,350
      Hero shows Ace Queen high
      :9c: A:
      Jtiltzfk shows a pair of Queens
      Q: A:

      Jtiltzfk wins 2,350 (net +1,295)

      Hero lost 1,055





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,440)
      UTG+1 giulianomilano (3,010)
      CO iam_Albyboy (65)
      BTN BigWhale90 (5,635)
      SB easycallonany2 (740)
      BB BG-Daddy1960 (2,610)

      Blinds: 100/200

      Pre-Flop: (300, 6 players) Hero is UTG :8c: A:
      Hero folds, 2 folds, BigWhale90 raises to 600, easycallonany2 goes all-in 740, 1 fold, BigWhale90 calls 140

      Flop: :3h: :4c: K: (1,680, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: T: (1,680, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: :3s: (1,680, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: 1,680
      BigWhale90 shows a full house, Tens full of Threes
      T: T:
      easycallonany2 shows two pair, Kings and Threes
      K: :5s:

      BigWhale90 wins 1,680 (net +940)

      easycallonany2 lost 740





      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      FullTiltPoker
      7 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
      $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo)

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1,090)
      UTG+1 MrFrost666 (2,540)
      MP coachtr (1,935)
      CO JeannyStar (4,145)
      BTN dnog1 (1,535)
      SB teropapa83 (1,005)
      BB mauidreams (1,250)

      Blinds: 100/200

      Pre-Flop: (300, 7 players) Hero is UTG A: :8c:
      Hero folds, 4 folds, teropapa83 goes all-in 1,005, 1 fold

      Final Pot: 1,205

      teropapa83 wins 1,205 (net +200)




      I guess this kinda explains what my post is about . :)

      Quite a lot when facing these spots i have some doubt. I analysed most of them and I found out that I'm not consequent in my pushing or folding. I never really know what to do.

      These type of hands are discussed by pzhon in his ICM video. I think what he means is that sometimes we have to make -cEV pushes because of factors not measured in ICM? The factors are time till next blindlevel, folding war-ish situations, ...?

      On the NL community section I brought this up and a lot of people said that they're folding almost all of these hands. I'm pretty sure there is a line somewhere... but it's hard to calculate on the spot.

      Is this a feeling I have to create? Should i just spam ICM trainer on this? What's your views and opinions on this? Is there something I'm missing?
  • 5 replies
    • santostr
      santostr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2009 Posts: 663
      In this spots we are talking about -$ev pushes, not chip ev.

      pzhon wrote somewere (in video or forum) about this.

      You calculate the next hand with a nash calculator. See how much you loose, on average, because you're in the BB. Your push need to have an EV > EV after the hand in BB.
    • Nagger82
      Nagger82
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2009 Posts: 2,301
      You fold each one of these hands because each time there are 6 players left and since you're in first position a push is not +$EV

      It are close spots but i'm folding these hands (especially on the micro's where you can fold yourself itm or make more profitable pushes in late position than in early)

      :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

      Grts Nagger
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      You are asking about pushes which might lose money according to the ICM, but which will actually gain money due to factors not considered by the ICM. I would call these -EICM pushes which are +E$.

      The fact that these pushes exist is exciting, but they are less common and less valuable than many people assume. Many people cite the possibility that a hand might be a -EICM/+E$ push as their main justification for making a push which tools like SNG Wizard say are horrible, when in fact the push really is horrible and really costs the profits of many tournaments of solid play.

      In the Nash equilibrium, you push a tight range from early position, and your opponents react to that by each calling with a tight range, although there are so many opponents that you will still get called quite often.

      You will often find yourself called by a strong hand. You need to have decent equity against a strong range. You should be much more inclined to push weak suited aces than weak offsuit aces. And by weak, I mean the kicker is lower than ten. Suitedness matters more when you will tend to be called by hands which are ahead of your hand. If you get called by KQ, you will often win unimproved. The suitedness only matters if the KQ improves. If you get called by AJ or 99, then many more of your flushes will be the difference between winning and losing.

      I didn't check all of your examples, but in the first few, the offsuit aces did not appear to be Nash pushes, while the suited aces were Nash pushes.

      Many of your actual opponents are not positionally aware as much as they should be. They tend to give too much respect to a raise from the button and not enough respect to a raise from early position. These players may tend to call wider than the Nash equilibrium calling range. Even if you have some opponents who are perfectly aware of position, on average your opponents are not. When players are calling widely, this tends to make the weaker semibluffing hands in the Nash pushing range unprofitable, and from early position that can mean hands like weak suited aces and weak suited broadways. If players call with ATo instead of folding, it harms hands like A6s and JTs (while your KK and AQ usually welcome the action). The result is that when the Nash pushing range is tight, the correct pushing range is often even tighter.

      If you feel that a hand like Axs is slightly unprofitable according to the ICM and your estimates of your opponents' ranges, then it might be a +E$ shove when you are in early position, particularly UTG. This is because the ICM overvalues folding a little bit more than it overvalues stealing the blinds or doubling up, due to the cost of posting the big blind. The flip side is that some pushes which might gain ICM equity from the small blind may actually lose money since they cost you some valuable free hands. However, all of the analysis I have done says these are not large adjustments.

      The main correct reason to push weak hands UTG is that you have a read that your opponents give too much respect to UTG raises, contrary to the trend I pointed out above. If that is not the case in your games, then pushing weak hands UTG is probably a significant leak.
    • Tibovw
      Tibovw
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2010 Posts: 1,994
      Ok thanks for your reply . It's deffinatly made me think about it more and it made me more aware of situations.

      Basicly I have to estimate my oponents and see if a push is justified. (If they are tight enough) .

      I'm guessing i'd sometimes be better of pushing 67s then A3o in an UTG position when I think I might get called light?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Neither 76s nor A3o is going to be a Nash equilibrium push if you are a short stack pushing through many players. Hitting the blinds is not the end of the world.

      As your opponents' ranges get tighter, you can push more hands which will be behind when called. You should add hands like A6s before you add 76s to your pushing range, but there are times when you would push 76s and not A3o.

      People like how 76s is not as likely to be dominated by an unpaired calling hand. However, A6s has a few other advantages. A6s has more equity when you get called by a hand like JJ, and it blocks your opponents from having a calling hand by taking an ace out of the deck.