[NL20-NL50] 25NL river bluff - spew?

    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1053758 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 1053758 end_of_the_skype_highlighting
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      Hero (SB): $25.35
      BB: $29.14
      UTG: $19.12
      MP: $25.35
      CO: $39.22
      BTN: $33.83

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A Heart K Spade
      1 fold, MP raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.90, 1 fold

      Flop: ($2.25) K Club 3 Club 4 Club (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.25) 6 Spade (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

      River: ($11.75) 7 Heart (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $6.50, Hero raises to $19.60 all in



      The villain is 19/16 with a 100% fold to 3bet over 61 hands.

      I didn't 3bet preflop because I don't think we get much value by 3betting a tag who's opening from the MP.
      So the flop check/call is pretty standard I think as he's going to be v-betting worse hands there and bluffing, semi-bluffing a decent amount.
      I thought about donking the turn to not give a free card to his flush draws and the little straight draw combos he can have there but decided to just check/call again and check/fold the river unimproved.

      So the river brings a 4-straght on the board and he bet just alittle over half pot so I decided that he can't have a straight or a flush with this betsize, and that he is thin v-betting flopped sets, AK, AA, so I obviously can't call vs that range so I decided to check/jam, hopefully repping a flush or a straight to get him off a set, OP or a split.

      So what are you thoughts on this? Is the range I assigned him on the river about right and is he folding enough to make this profitable?
  • 4 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      3bet pre.

      C/r flop for value (yes you can).
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      What do we get value frm by ch/raising? What do we do then on the non blank turn cards, and vs a flop 3bet?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      My feeling is that you probably overanalyse somewhat for nl25. I dont think your thought process is bad, just that its so far ahead of the average player at that limit that you dont really get the benefit since players arent really capable of folding enough.

      Anyway, I just call on the river. AA is unlikely as we have blockers. Villain can also have AK or KQ or random missed one cd flush draw etc.

      I dont think he folds much of his strong value range (sets+) given pot size and odds so the hands he folds are generally the hands you were ahead of anyway.

      I still prefer the 3b pre. Even if you think villain is not going broke pre without AK/QQ+, the 3b itself is still +EV since if he folds 33 pre you gain vs your actual eQuity. If you think calling is preferable since you keep in dominated hands then folding tptk at any point in the hand doesnt make sense (without reads which you may not have after 60 hnds).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      My feeling is that you probably overanalyse somewhat for nl25. I dont think your thought process is bad, just that its so far ahead of the average player at that limit that you dont really get the benefit since players arent really capable of folding enough.

      Anyway, I just call on the river. AA is unlikely as we have blockers. Villain can also have AK or KQ or random missed one cd flush draw etc.

      I dont think he folds much of his strong value range (sets+) given pot size and odds so the hands he folds are generally the hands you were ahead of anyway.

      I still prefer the 3b pre. Even if you think villain is not going broke pre without AK/QQ+, the 3b itself is still +EV since if he folds 33 pre you gain vs your actual eQuity. If you think calling is preferable since you keep in dominated hands then folding tptk at any point in the hand doesnt make sense (without reads which you may not have after 60 hnds).
      +1
      Also don´t like river c/rai. he is not really valuebetting that often two pair or AA that you should fold your tptk consider how often he might be bluffing. So you don´t have to turn your tptk into bluff, since very likely whatever hands he is valuebetting he would also call the shove or if he was going to fold then hands that are anyway behind your tptk