[NL2-NL10] Aa Nl5

    • brazyd
      brazyd
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2008 Posts: 87
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5
      MP3:
      $6,31

      0,02/0,05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:spade: , A:club:
      4 folds, MP3 raises to $0,15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0,45, BB folds, MP3 calls $0,30.

      Flop: ($0,95) K:spade: , Q:club: , 9:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,75, MP3 raises to $1,80, Hero raises to $4,55 (All-In), MP3 calls $2,75.

      Turn: ($10,05) 8:spade:
      River: ($10,05) 5:club: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $10,05

      I think this one is played wrong. Do you fold to the raise on the flop ( for tree of kind, straights )?
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      This is about the worst possible flop we can hit.
      However, we need to bring another $3.8 for a total pot of $10, so we need 38% equity.
      I doubt JT is in his range as he appears to be pretty tight (we don't have many hands from him but imo it's reasonable to assume he doesn't have it in his range.
      So a worst case range looks like this:
      {QQ+,99,AKs,KQs,AKo,KQo}
      Against that we have decent equity:
      Board: Ks Qc 9h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 62.929% 60.74% 02.19% 90195 3255.00 { QQ+, 99, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
      Hand 1: 37.071% 34.88% 02.19% 51795 3255.00 { AA }

      But it's still very close.
      I doubt he's ever bluffing in this spot since we look so strong, and if he just calls hands like AK on the flop our equity is even worse.
      So yes, bet/fold is probably the best line.

      Notice that even though we bet/fold the flop, we'd bet/bet/bet in case he called because in this case his range is a lot weaker.