[NL2-NL10] AA on button

    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):
      $12.29
      SB:
      $11.48
      BB:
      $10.00
      MP2:
      $12.76
      MP3:
      $14.10
      CO:
      $15.36


      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, A.
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.20, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.65, SB folds, BB calls $0.55, MP3 calls $0.45.

      Flop: ($2) 7, 8, 5 (3 players)
      BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB calls $1.40, MP3 raises to $3.60, Hero raises to $6.00, BB folds, MP3 raises to $13.45, Hero calls $5.64.

      Turn: ($28.49) K (2 players)


      River: ($28.49) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $28.49.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a pair of aces(Ac Ah).
      MP3 shows a pair of eights(8c 6d).

      Hero wins with a pair of aces(Ac Ah).


      Villain was playing 89/74 (im not kidding)..
      Reason i'm posting this is, that i've been told by a fellow pokerstrategist, that i actually shouldnt have called such player here right because of his stats.. (you can check out my blog if you want to see the conversation) Personally i dont see a reason to fold overpair against someone with these stats. You decide.:)
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Alficor1,

      The main question is how many hands do you have on him? Of course he can play very loose and opening a lot preflop but how does he play postflop? What's his WTS? What's his W$SD? How aggressive he is? Do you expect him to raise there with just 8x type of hands from previous reads?

      Such information would help us, either to go broke there or not but usually when we are in such a multiway pot we often dominated and he could easily have at least 2pairs or something similar. More often I would be inclined to fold and not the risk if you don't have a lot of hands on the guy.

      Small calculation for you:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 52,805% 51,173% 3,265% 45,563% 55+, 96s, 85s+, 96o, 85o+
      Player 2: 47,195% 45,563% 3,265% 51,173% AA

      Of course with such equity we could go in but we can't be sure if it's the range with what he goes broke. So therefore depending on how many hands you have on him I would act accordingly.

      Best regards.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      The sample was small - just 20 hands. In those 20 hands, he lost 22 bucks so he could have been tilted, which was one of the main reason i called. I though he was in the "OMG so sick i gotta win the money back!" mood. His WTSD is 64%, W$SD is 43%.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Alficor1
      The sample was small - just 20 hands. In those 20 hands, he lost 22 bucks so he could have been tilted, which was one of the main reason i called. I though he was in the "OMG so sick i gotta win the money back!" mood. His WTSD is 64%, W$SD is 43%.
      As I said it's very close and often depends also based the actions on table and you had somehow good reads, so why not but you are putting yourself into big variance.