Fold or Push vs Donkey Stats

    • stevegold87
      stevegold87
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2009 Posts: 2,640
      Hello everybody,

      Today is saturday and yesterday friday,
      what does it mean?

      It means that it's a donkey fest at the SnG 2$ FR turbo tables. I am having problem using ICM against them. I really don't want to push against someone who is 80/30 over 30 hands because I know there's a high chance he will call ATC.

      Here's 3 scenarios that I would like help with :

      #1

      Blinds 200/100
      BB : 2000 (56/20 over 40 hands)
      SB : 1500 (10/9 over 90 hands)
      Hero(BTN) : 1700
      Hero is dealt 10 :heart: 5 :heart:

      I am pretty sure ICM would say to push here, if I am correct, I would totally think a fold would be appropriate? What do you guys think?

      #2

      Blinds 200/100
      BB : 5000 (90/20 over 40 hands)
      SB : 1500 (10/9 over 90 hands)
      Hero(BTN) : 1700
      Hero is dealt J :heart: 9 :heart:

      Same question as #1 Push or Fold?

      #3

      Blinds 200/100
      BB : 3000 (40/0 over 50 hands)
      SB : 1000 (29/20 over 90 hands)
      Hero(BTN) : 1700
      Hero is dealt J :heart: 9 :heart:

      Push or fold?

      Now I am asking those questions because I think I will get called most of the time by those donkeys so I fold a lot to those guys when I guess I should push?

      Thanks for the input
  • 5 replies
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      IMO, you don't need to blindly shove ATC. Especially if you are up against donkeys who are aggressive
      and it is even more of a bonus when they are aggressive against eachother. Hand #1 I fold. You can
      survive the blinds and you have a few more hands for the other two stacks to collide.

      You also have more chips than SB who will be forced to push before you to survive.

      I think this situation is dealt with in the Folding Wars video.
    • PokerPirate1
      PokerPirate1
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.08.2010 Posts: 43
      I guess you have to be a little more tight in these spots, I have been playing these micro games a lot with quite decent stats and I am definitely trying to be wary of loose callers. Even though a lot of people say that these sngs are nearly unbeatable because of the donks calling their whole stacks off with trash and they are gambling on the bubble etc. Your main advantage is patience, because they will gamble not only with you, but mostly among themselves and your prizepool equity will be quickly going up even without you getting in trouble. Overly aggression is a definite mistake, one has to be cautious even in situations where you might reasonably want to push ATC. Also, lots of stealing actions can become -EV if you stand against a loose calling range.

      Good luck on the tables...
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      If you have trouble beating these games, then it means you have a lot of room for improvement. It does NOT mean that you need to move up to levels where the play is better. You get many of the same bad players at higher levels, just a lower percentage of them, and if you don't learn to beat them at lower levels then you will have great difficulty at higher levels.

      You say that you think these are ICM pushes. In fact, the second and third are marginal in the Nash equilibrium, and the first is not a Nash push. If your read (not the default range of SNG Wizard) is that your opponents are too tight, then you can make an exploitive adjustment and push a little wider, adding more semibluffs. If your read is that your opponents are too loose, then you need to drop marginal semibluffs which become unprofitable.

      Look at the Nash calling ranges for the big blind in these situations:
      #1: 12.7%, 55+ A7s+ A8o+ KJs+
      #2: 15.1%, 33+ A5s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo
      #3: 15.1%, 33+ A5s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo

      If you think the big blinds will call with different ranges, adjust your pushing ranges accordingly.

      That you see spite calls against you does not mean the games are not beatable. Those same players are making spite calls against other players. In general, you expect to gain more from the spite calls against other players than you lose from the spite calls against you.
    • stevegold87
      stevegold87
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2009 Posts: 2,640
      Thank you pzhon, I realized with a simple post like this that I was pushing on BTN a little bit too wide against those players.(maybe even against other player) That website is also amazing. I didn't know that Nash range = ICM. A bit confused here. Have a great day

      btw I know they are beatable, that is why I am here to find my leaks :)
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      I didn't mean to imply that Nash = ICM. The Nash equilibrium calculations I linked are based on the ICM, but you could mean other things when you say ICM, such as exploiting your opponents according to the ICM as opposed to making the game-theoretically optimal plays.

      The Nash equilibrium is useful to know even if you are playing bad players. If your opponents are calling looser than the Nash calling range, then you definitely don't want to push hands outside the Nash pushing range, and you may have to drop some of the weaker semibluffs within the Nash pushing range.