[NL2-NL10] NL10 AQ FD+pair

    • nktns
      nktns
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 452
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($7.95)
      Hero ($14.75)
      UTG ($8.72)
      UTG+1 ($3.93)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($15.16)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: A:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.65) 7:spade: T:spade: 9:club:

      Hero checks, CO bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

      TURN ($1.95) 7:spade: T:spade: 9:club: A:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO bets $1.95, Hero calls $1.95

      RIVER ($5.85) 7:spade: T:spade: 9:club: A:diamond: 9:heart:

      Hero checks, CO bets $3.31, Hero calls $3.31

      vpip: 21, pfr: 13, af: 2.9, stealBTN: 49%, cbetflop: 68%, cbetturn: 44%, WTS: 2%, foldto3bet: 31% (13), 917 hands

      His button open raising is so wide i think i can 3bet here pre?

      as played not sure about river call. I think he is not bluffing/betting worse here often enough.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nktns,

      Preflop: Since he Calls a lot of 3bets then I sometimes also prefer to just play in smaller pots with our AQs type of hand. But your hand is pretty strong against his stealing range so you could also consider 3betting. Both are fine.
      Flop: Is his WTS right value? 2% for real? That's likely wrong. What's his W$SD then? But since such an opponent has so low WTS you could even consider Check/Raising with pretty good equity and likely also fold equity. Since his WTS is way too small, he will often give it up here, maybe even some PPs.

      As played when Check/Called flop
      Turn: As we hit pretty strong hand you could even easily Check/Raise him here but against such a WTS, if it's right the Check/Calling sometimes is better spot. Since his CBet turn is also kinda low, and more often I expect him to do such moves with pretty strong hands.

      As played if turnw as Check/Called
      River: You can likely Check/Fold if his WTS is right but that's unlikely not the case so it's very close. I think I would be more inclined to Check/Fold there since his line seems to be pretty strong taking into consideration that he has pretty low CBet/2nd barrel. Just if we ask ourself, what kind of hands do we beat there? Only reasonable hand is AJ what we beat, others beat us, like A9, AT, AK, TT, T9, 77 etc. And do you think he would take such line with a lot weaker Aces, not that there are a lot? Bluff in this case is very rare situation.

      Best regards.
    • nktns
      nktns
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 452
      Meh, sorry, WTS is 22%, mistyped that. :/
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by nktns
      Meh, sorry, WTS is 22%, mistyped that. :/
      And what about W$SD? But I guess it's something like 50% but ye as I explained his range, I think I'd more often inclined to make the crying fold on river. If his W$SD is more like 60 or something similar then it's pretty easy fold.