[NL2-NL10] NL2 AA shoved flop

    • Royaltramp
      Royaltramp
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.11.2010 Posts: 215
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $3
      Hero:
      $3.62
      CO:
      $2.19

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:diamond: , A:club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, CO calls $0.08, 2 folds, BB calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.25) 6:diamond: , 3:spade: , 2:diamond: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.13, CO raises to $0.48, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.54 (All-In), CO raises to $2.11 (All-In).

      Turn: ($5.90) 8:diamond:
      River: ($5.90) 8:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $5.90

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two-pair, aces and eights (Ad Ac)
      CO shows a full-house, deuces full of eights (2h 2c)

      CO wins with a full-house, deuces full of eights (2h 2c)

      --- I didn't even think there might be a set here but I'm wondering if I should have been suspicious of a ~4x raise here. Thoughts?
  • 2 replies
    • funktor
      funktor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 922
      Hi Royaltramp!

      This board is quite tricky... str8 is possible, FD are possible, and as well set is possible.

      Let's put his raising range to equilator. It is unlikely he gots Axs type of hands here as you have the A. He may flat with TT, JJ IP. It is likely that he will play hands like 7:d8 passively and will not raise. Even in case we will give him quite wide range of

      66, 33, 22, 45s, TT, JJ, 4d3d, 7d8d, 8d9d, TdJd

      You are only 51% favorite.

      If we make range here more narrow
      66, 33, 22, 45s, TT, JJ, 4:d3

      you are 49%. But you have to assume that from this range TT, JJ will fold to your shove and you will be against 66, 33, 22, 45s, 4d3d and that makes you 14% dog.

      Because the flop is really low, I would consider calling raise here and re-evalute turn... I would be donking any safe card (no , 5, 4) and folding to raise. Otherwise I am check folding turn here. If called, check folding river.


      If the board is something like 9:d8:c7 and you got raised, you can fold AA-QQ hands imediately as you are not favorite to villian range.

      Regards

      Funktor
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Royaltramp,

      Since the opponent seems to be pretty passive, 11/6 guy and such a flop is often so called set flop, I see them have set here most of the time. Some PPs like 99, TT he usually would prefer to play them passively since he could be scared to be against some OP. And more often hands like QQ, KK he would just raise it up preflop. So therefore set is more likely to be in his range, also he is raising that big into multiway pot and seems like he is ready to go broke.

      Best regards.