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[NL20-NL50] [SH] 3B pot Overpair Flop raise

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - €0.50 NL - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (BB): €50.00
      UTG: €60.29
      CO: €66.62 From MP VP:17/PR:16/4B:16/Fold 3B 70/Flop raise 11
      BU: €24.19
      SB: €82.91

      SB posts SB €0.25, Hero posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

      fold, CO raises to €1.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to €5.00, CO calls €3.50

      Flop: (€10.25, 2 players) 7:heart: 8:diamond: 9:diamond:
      Hero bets €7.50, CO raises to €18.00, fold

      This guy is on the nity side, I think when he raises he has KK+, AdKd, AdQd and maybe TT against which I ahve 29% equity. So fold?
  • 3 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Well it depends on if you think he's often slowplaying AA/KK pre.

      If he isn't he has TT/JJ/QQ, a couple of sets and nut flushdraws and you have to get it in.

      If he is, you're doing pretty bad and you can fold.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      does 17/16 even defend pf with 77/88/99/JTs. I think he would mostly fold these hands, so you shoudl´t be against set too many times, rather smt like TT, maybe even JJ, sometimes bluff.
      I would personally shove, since I suspect players would make there too many moves, but if you think he is not bluffing there or only raising there mostly KK+ then fold is also fine
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      His 4b range is 2.5%, so I assume he is usually 4b KK/AA pre (i.e. more often than not). AdQd is unlikely since we have 2 blokers. AdKd never fold this flop, nor do TT and maybe not JJ, so I really dont want to fold here.

      Even if you add in AA (i.e. assume he traps with AA/KK half the time), you still have 50%. So I think you have to assume he plays this way only with sets to justify a flod. Since the board is drawy, I think sets may even raise more on the flop, since you would be getting decent odds to draw.