[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - top 2 - wmp - 200bb eff.

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($83.15)
      BB ($50)
      UTG ($19.50)
      UTG+1 ($145)
      CO ($103)
      Hero ($97.40)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: 9:heart:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, BB calls $4, CO calls $3

      FLOP ($13.75) 9:diamond: T:diamond: 2:spade:

      BB checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8, BB folds

      TURN ($29.75) 9:diamond: T:diamond: 2:spade: 3:club:

      CO bets $21, Hero calls $21

      RIVER ($71.75) 9:diamond: T:diamond: 2:spade: 3:club: A:heart:

      CO bets $70.20 (AI), Hero calls $63.90 (AI)

      villain is a regular, 26/23/6, wts 27, steal 56%, 300 hands, fold vs 3b 55.
      I am pretty happy to go broke in this spot for 100bb and, given the draws, would normally raise/broke on the flop. For 200bb, I'm not sure this is profitable (even though the number of combinations of hands that beat me is pretty small 99: 1 combo, TT: 1 combo, 22: 3 combos - 5 combos in total).

      However, on the turn I am already uncomfortable.

      Should we make an assumption that a reg villain is almost never going to fire 3 streets for 200bb with an overpair (JJ/QQ) and that we must therefore fold on the River because even though the mathematical likelihood of him having a hand that beats us is small, his willingness to invest so much $ is strong "evidence" that he nevertheless DOES have one of these hands? i.e., read less in a vacuum should we just be folding on the River. Is there any benefit to raising turn for free showdown?( assume not).

      Thanks
  • 9 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      He can take the same line there with overpairs at least on the flop and turn and he can have there a lot of draws. I wouldn´t fold river, since draws missed. But yeah it is quite difficult spot, but if you 3bet pf T9s I think you shouldn´t really get away your hand postflop. Never can be sure when someone is bet/bet/shoving there with nut flushdraw
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ok, thanks. Not too much of a mistake then.

      Never can be sure when someone is bet/bet/shoving there with nut flushdraw


      Even for 200bb you think villains are doing this at nl50?
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      I just want to say that 3betting pre is very very bad.

      You have an awesome hand to flat in position with a high SPR, don't turn it into a bluff.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I just want to say that 3betting pre is very very bad.


      I dont say you are wrong about this (anyone else have an opinion?) but dont we rather want to take the initiative with such hands, so that we can play our draws aggressively?

      otherwise we just end up calling for our draws passively and its so obvious when we hit.

      the other point is that we are not flatting AA/KK here for 200bb (well, maybe KK vs a super nit), so why not keep our 3b range wide?

      thanks
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      You can play your draws aggressively postflop even if you just flat preflop.

      And sure you want to keep your 3bet range wide, but IMO it should be pretty polarised in this spot (AK, AQs, JJ+ or something for value, and then you can bluff with hands like ATo, K5s, 96s etc.).
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      I think 3betting is okay if you know your opponent is not likely to 4bet. T9 suited is exactly the type of hand that you want to build a pot in position with. Ugly is if he has AA or something and makes it $16. If this happens you have to fold T9 suited - a hand that has good value. Another option is 3betting small enough so you can call a 4bet. I think you played it fine though.

      I MUCH prefer raise/broke on the flop. I would only flat against an opponent I thought was capable of bluffing again. I imagine he could have a hand like JJ QQ or maybe even KK. Hands that he would be uncomfortable 4betting pre but certainly cannot fold. Now he is donking the flop because he has the equity to do so. He can also have some draws which you have good equity against if you play raise/broke against them.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Thanks, noclaninator, for your thoughts.

      I am really not sure that JJ/QQ is ever going broke on the flop for 200bb in a 3b pot when they are not preflop aggressor. There's no reason why I cant have AA/KK here and I doubt the average reg is willing to risk it. If we raise I would expect CO to just flat with those hands. If he 4bs, hes effectively bluffing and (if all the money goes in on this flop) he will see TT/99/22/AA/KK/JdQd/AdKd against which he is crushed.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would 3-bet very often deep these hands, since people won´t really 4-bet often enough that doesn´t make 4-bet profitable and if they does I always have option to call and play postflop. So did he have there set?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      So did he have there set?


      Y, TT. :rolleyes: