- 09.12.2010, 11:27
- This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Tim64: 09.12.2010 11:30.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($83.15)
BB ($50)
UTG ($19.50)
UTG+1 ($145)
CO ($103)
Hero ($97.40)
Dealt to Hero T
9
fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, BB calls $4, CO calls $3
FLOP ($13.75) 9
T
2
BB checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8, BB folds
TURN ($29.75) 9
T
2
3
CO bets $21, Hero calls $21
RIVER ($71.75) 9
T
2
3
A
CO bets $70.20 (AI), Hero calls $63.90 (AI)
villain is a regular, 26/23/6, wts 27, steal 56%, 300 hands, fold vs 3b 55.
I am pretty happy to go broke in this spot for 100bb and, given the draws, would normally raise/broke on the flop. For 200bb, I'm not sure this is profitable (even though the number of combinations of hands that beat me is pretty small 99: 1 combo, TT: 1 combo, 22: 3 combos - 5 combos in total).
However, on the turn I am already uncomfortable.
Should we make an assumption that a reg villain is almost never going to fire 3 streets for 200bb with an overpair (JJ/QQ) and that we must therefore fold on the River because even though the mathematical likelihood of him having a hand that beats us is small, his willingness to invest so much $ is strong "evidence" that he nevertheless DOES have one of these hands? i.e., read less in a vacuum should we just be folding on the River. Is there any benefit to raising turn for free showdown
assume not).
Thanks
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($83.15)
BB ($50)
UTG ($19.50)
UTG+1 ($145)
CO ($103)
Hero ($97.40)
Dealt to Hero T
9
fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, BB calls $4, CO calls $3
FLOP ($13.75) 9
T
2
BB checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8, BB folds
TURN ($29.75) 9
T
2
3
CO bets $21, Hero calls $21
RIVER ($71.75) 9
T
2
3
A
CO bets $70.20 (AI), Hero calls $63.90 (AI)
villain is a regular, 26/23/6, wts 27, steal 56%, 300 hands, fold vs 3b 55.
I am pretty happy to go broke in this spot for 100bb and, given the draws, would normally raise/broke on the flop. For 200bb, I'm not sure this is profitable (even though the number of combinations of hands that beat me is pretty small 99: 1 combo, TT: 1 combo, 22: 3 combos - 5 combos in total).
However, on the turn I am already uncomfortable.
Should we make an assumption that a reg villain is almost never going to fire 3 streets for 200bb with an overpair (JJ/QQ) and that we must therefore fold on the River because even though the mathematical likelihood of him having a hand that beats us is small, his willingness to invest so much $ is strong "evidence" that he nevertheless DOES have one of these hands? i.e., read less in a vacuum should we just be folding on the River. Is there any benefit to raising turn for free showdown
assume not).Thanks
