[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - AA oop

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($140)
      BB ($27.55)
      UTG ($97.85)
      Hero ($59.70)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($28.85)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: A:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, fold, fold, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($5.50) 4:club: 4:heart: 8:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, CO calls $4.25, BB folds

      TURN ($14) 4:club: 4:heart: 8:diamond: 5:spade:

      Hero bets $9, CO calls $9

      RIVER ($32) 4:club: 4:heart: 8:diamond: 5:spade: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $44.70 (AI), CO calls $35 (AI)

      villain is 22/17/4, wts 24, 1.1k hands, 3b 7%. No specific reads other than that he squeezes TT & called off 100bb shove, and flats 99 oop.

      what range should we put villain on once he calls the turn? What is our best play/bet size on the River?

      I assume villain would have some hands like TT/JJ in this spot which he would not necessarily want to 3b pre but also would not want to fold before the River. I don't think he has many 6x hands in his range ( even 66 would fold on the turn quite often, I think) so I'm not very worried about straights on this river and 88 is the only obvious slowplay.
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      player would also slowplay there 4x
      Especially in 3-way don´t really like your play unless player wtsd is really big, since then he would stack off there with any pair.
      I would likely c/c or c/f river depends how big he bets or if I´d bet myself then make it 15$ and decide then if he shoves over my river bet
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Hi Kaitz20,

      Thanks for responding, but you didnt really answer my questions :)

      Ofc a player would often slowplay 4x. So, question is: how many 4x hands does a reg have in his range in this spot?

      what range should we put villain on once he calls the turn? What is our best play/bet size on the River?


      Villain has 4x, QQ, A8s etc in his range - maybe you can help expand this.
      Ch/f this river seems way too weak to me vs this entire range - we cant just assume we're beat just becuase villain called 2 bets already.

      I would likely c/c or c/f river depends how big he bets or if I´d bet myself then make it 15$ and decide then if he shoves over my river bet


      y, but can you help work out which is best option? - because just listing the options doesnt really help with understanding which is best...

      For example, if you bet, how do you decide what to do if he shoves. And in fact, shouldnt we already know how we are going to react?

      thanks in advance
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      He has 3 combo's of 88, 2-3 of 55, 1x 54s, 1-2 A4s, for about 8 total. The rest is 99/TT/JJ (maybe QQ, but probably not).

      He never folds those on the river to a small-ish bet, and he also never shoves them, so I like 12.50/fold on the river.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by falcone1983
      He has 3 combo's of 88, 2-3 of 55, 1x 54s, 1-2 A4s, for about 8 total. The rest is 99/TT/JJ (maybe QQ, but probably not).

      He never folds those on the river to a small-ish bet, and he also never shoves them, so I like 12.50/fold on the river.
      +1

      I put his range:

      board: 4c4h8d5s7d
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AA 69.13% 309 0
      44-JJ, 45, As4s, As4d, 78,89,8T, As8s 30.87% 138 0

      So aces should be ahead so indeed we should valuebet river. But I think he is going to fold to shove all 8x hands and likely also 99, which means we´re behind if getting called:

      board: 4c4h8d5s7d
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AA 34.29% 72 0
      44-88,TT,JJ, 45, As4s, As4d 65.71% 138 0

      So I agree falcone that b/f river would be very often the best option. I´d likely go 15$ bet, which he should call down also with tp hands

      About your question: how do you decide what to do if he shoves.
      - I think river af would likely be useful. If I had 1.1k hands at regular table I would also have reads how he plays and then I can decide if I want to b/c or b/f. Rush you´re basically against unknown and I think your gut feeling tell you if you should call or not. If you have notes he can make moves then call is maybe better.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ok, Kaitz20,

      Thanks for this much fuller answer :)

      He actually called here with T8s which surprised me. And I agree that would be unusual so bet/fold $15 looks better.

      At the time I convinced myself he was on overpair to the board and so I tried to make it look bluffy but against his whole range, shove is probably not best, as you said.