[NL20-NL50] NL50SH Set on monotone bord OOP

    • fazamaka
      fazamaka
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2007 Posts: 68
      How to better proceed here on Turn, river?



      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      Hero ($50)
      UTG+1 ($49.25)
      CO ($60.65)
      BTN ($48.32)
      SB ($73.07)
      BB ($50)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG 4 4
      Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

      Flop: 4 7 Q ($5.75, 3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, CO calls $4.50, SB folds

      Turn: 8 ($14.75, 2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero raises to $23.75, CO raises to $44.50, Hero calls $20

      River: 9 ($103, 2 players)
  • 2 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,402
      I think check raising the turn is the worst of all the possible plays. You basically commit yourself against a very strong range where you have only around 17% (against something like {AcKc, 77, QQ}). (When villain 3b you in this spot he cannot expect you to ever fold (except if you were bluffing) therefore he is only getting his money in with made flushes and higher sets.)

      So, I think better options are either: bet/call, bet/fold or check/call.

      first of all, if you bet, you will get called by some worse hands (for example KcQd). such a hand would very often check behind for pot control.

      Second, you may induce villain to make a play, e.g. bluff raise or semi-bluff raise then you can push over the top. (This would be good against an aggressive opponent who likes to bluff)

      If you assume that villain will only raise your bet on the turn with a flush and his raise is so big that you do not have the odds to call (taking into account implied odds) for your full house+ outs (7/Q/8/4 = 10 outs) then you can fold.

      As played, when villain bets, you can just call. If he already has a flush, this is your best option since he is giving you great odds (around 6:1) to draw to your full house, and then you can re-evaluate on the River, either check/calling versus a smallish bet or check/folding against a big bet.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      3-way c/c is reasonable line, since very often players have there flush. but since he bets so small I would also likely raise turn and play for stacks, since it seems like he doesn´t have there too strong hand, so my set should be ahead of his weak turn bet
      I would only make it 15$ and then have to call shove.
      You can bet 8$ and then evaluate if he raises and if you don´t see him raising for value too many times with two pair you can always b/c and then shove river if you hit your boat or c/f if you miss