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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 Rush - TP + nut FD

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($49.19)
      BB ($12.19)
      UTG ($34.50)
      UTG+1 ($30.03)
      Hero ($34.96)
      BTN ($25)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.85) A:heart: 5:diamond: J:heart:

      Hero bets $1.46, BTN calls $1.46

      TURN ($4.77) A:heart: 5:diamond: J:heart: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.75, BTN raises to $9.25, Hero ???

      Villain - 26/16/6% 3bet/2.7AF (38 hands)

      Turn - shove or call?

      If call then what should my plan be on the river?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Against his value hands you have 30% equity

      board: Ah5dJh7d
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AdQd 29.87% 276 0
      AJ, A5, A7, 55 70.13% 648 0

      So if player is very straight forward then b/c turn, shove if you hit your diamond or Q, if you miss then c/f

      Now comes another problem: would player every make there moves and then maybe shove river with worse hands. I think answer to that question is sometimes. If we add some very strong combo draws then your equity moves up to 34%
      board: Ah5dJh7d
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AdQd 34.19% 346 0
      AJ, A5, A7, 55,6h8h,KdQd, QdJd, KdJd 65.81% 666 0

      But imo it is still not enough to shove turn, since if he is raising there with very strong range you´re always getting all-in behind and if you think he is bluffing then he would just fold his bluff.

      So b/c turn and evaluate river: either planning shoving, calling him down or folding depends how often you think he is raising turn and then shoving river as bluffs