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[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush -- 22 -- facing loose squeeze

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20)
      BB ($94.50)
      UTG ($50)
      UTG+1 ($19.60)
      CO ($68.15)
      Hero ($51.80)

      Dealt to Hero 2:diamond: 2:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $6.25, Hero raises to $50, fold, BB raises to $94.50 (AI), Hero calls $1.80 (AI)

      FLOP ($105) 4:diamond: 9:club: K:heart:

      TURN ($105) 4:diamond: 9:club: K:heart: J:diamond:

      RIVER ($105) 4:diamond: 9:club: K:heart: J:diamond: 8:heart:


      villain is an aggressive regular. 30/26/4, 3b 12%; squeeze 22%, 392 hands. Small blind is 60/27, 52 hands.

      This looks to me like a high variance though profitable play. If we give villain even quite a loose range for calling our shove {99+, AQs+, AQo+ i.e. 5%, against which we have 33.9%}, he is still folding over 75% of the time (given squeeze of 22%). if my calculations are correct, he only needs to fold 64% of the time to make this break even play.

      any other thoughts?

      edit: villain called with JJ. does balancing now require that I also 4b shove AA/KK the next time I am in this situation versus him?

      thanks
  • 2 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Well, nobody really squeezes 22% over a decent sample, so I don't think your calculations are very relevant. That being said, I think this might be a profitable play, but the problem is that he probably won't give you credit for the nuts here the first time (why would you shove that w/o history?).

      He would probably have shoved JJ over a normal 4bet also, so you can consider it a bit of a cooler (as weird as that sounds), but in general I don't like these plays too much (not really necessary, and there's probably better hand to do it with).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I also don´t like it
      Players don´t do that with mostly AK+, TT+. So your range most of the times is small pp or AQ/AJ. So I think he is calling there 88+/AQ+. Really high variance play without any good reason, I´d just fold and moving on.
      With AA/KK you can sometimes shove but I think you show a lot more profit if you just flat pf and let him to tire to you multiple barrels