[NL2-NL10] [SH] NL10 Rush - Top set bad board

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($14.95)
      BB ($8)
      Hero ($10.76)
      UTG+1 ($11.53)
      CO ($11.15)
      BTN ($5.86)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: T:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.35, SB raises to $1, fold, Hero calls $0.65, BTN calls $0.65

      FLOP ($3.10) T:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1.76, BTN folds, SB calls $1.76

      TURN ($6.62) T:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:spade: 9:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($6.62) T:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:spade: 9:diamond: 3:heart:

      SB bets $6.62, Hero calls $6.62

      Villain unknown

      I was getting ready to fold, but changed my mind since he 3bet pre and really small which is usually a strong pocket, a hand he can be confident in vs 2 players and OOP.

      So me checking back the turn and him instapotting the river imo can mean 1 of 2 things:

      1) He wanted to c/r or c/shove turn with a strong diamond in his hand
      and now since I checked back, he doesn't worry about the flush and
      he's pretty confident in his overpair and wants to make up for the missed
      value on the turn.
      2) Bluff since I checked back and am probably weak
      3) He hit the flush with a weirdly played hand

      Imo 1 & 2 > 3

      EDIT: Totally forgot the str8 possibilities in my analysis, but str8 wouldn't
      pot the river, so not much difference ...
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello StaticMoth,

      Preflop: Since he almost minraised there, you have odds for a Call.
      Flop: I'd bet bigger, ~$2.50 so we could just shove on turn. :)
      Turn: I think I am more inclined to just Bet here and whatever if he even has the flush with AKs or whatever his hand is, I don't really want to see another diamond on river. He could still have some kind of PP what he was representing preflop. Even if he does have the flush, then we still have outs for our FH.

      Without sets:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 78,091% 78,091% 0,000% 21,909% TT
      Player 2: 21,909% 21,909% 0,000% 78,091% JJ+, AdKd

      With sets:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 82,086% 82,086% 0,000% 17,914% TT
      Player 2: 17,914% 17,914% 0,000% 82,086% JJ+, 99-88, 44, AdKd

      The equity against his range.

      River: As we played that passively, it's hard to fold here, since I sometimes even expect him to bet with his KK+ or something like that so huge, so in gameplay I would have Called there also. Maybe even a weaker set. :) The question more likely is if we even can shove against his bet, since he commits himself with his huge bet and likely will Call us with just OP there also.

      But I don't think he is bluffing there, he more often has a hand but the question is which. A lot of players would take such a line with flush very often and more tighter ones would never bet so huge with just OP there, more likely the bet would be a lot smaller, so therefore since we haven't invested that much into the pot, wouldn't be wrong if you just had folded there.

      Conclusion: Do we expect to be ahead there more than 50% of the time? Going through both analyzes and since we haven't invested much into the pot, I would fold this time and save us the money since we played that passively, we have only invested $2.76. Since I expect more often to see from any kind of players such line with flush, rarely a pure bluff. Also the opponent is unknown, that's why I'd prefer this line. Should have played the hand more aggressively and wouldn't have such decision.

      Just curios, what did he have then?

      Best regards.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by veriz
      Just curios, what did he have then?

      Best regards.
      AK of :spade: :f_biggrin:

      Guess he thought that since I played it weak, he might have AK of :diamond: just as well and rep that :f_biggrin:
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by StaticMoth
      Originally posted by veriz
      Just curios, what did he have then?

      Best regards.
      AK of :spade: :f_biggrin:

      Guess he thought that since I played it weak, he might have AK of :diamond: just as well and rep that :f_biggrin:
      Yep, could also happen that, likely was tilting or just drunk and though he has a flush. :D Just don't get sometimes such plays, nice Call.