# [NL20-NL50] [SH] Analysis of a turn semi bluff

• Bronze
Joined: 22.11.2008
iPoker - €0.50 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: €56.56
UTG: €50.00
Hero (BTN): €56.94
SB: €50.25 From Blinds: VP:21/PR:13/3B:9%/ 3k hands

SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has 8 T

fold, Hero raises to €1.50, SB raises to €5.50, fold, Hero calls €4.00

Flop: (€11.50, 2 players) 4 8 J
SB bets €6.50, Hero calls €6.50

Turn: (€24.50, 2 players) 9
SB bets €15.00, Hero raises to €44.94, SB calls €23.25

River: (€101.00, 2 players) 7

I think T8o is a terrible hand to call 3B.I did it because he 3B quite a lot but I shouldn't with T8o.
I think it is not a bad flop to float, only problem is that is 2nd barrel on the turn.

I would like to focus on the turn semi bluff. As I was wondering how it was in terms of EV I did a full analysis of it. Feel free to comment on it:

3B 9%: {77+,AJ+,ATs,KQs,KJs}
After the 2 barrels his range is: {JJ+,88,99,AJ,KJs}

I believe he will call my shove with {AA,KK,JJ,88,99} (30 combos) against which I have 25.3% equity. He will fold with {AJ,KJs,QQ} (26 combos).
He will fold 46% of the time.
Let's see now what is the Pfold to get EV=0:

EV=Pfold*(39.50)+(1-PFold)*(0.253*(62.5-38.25)-38.25)
EV=39.5*PFold+32.6725*PFold-32.11
PFold= 44.4%

The turn shove has a slightly positive EV if the assumptions are right (and ofc my calcs!) (mainly can we expect him to fold QQ and AJ)