[NL20-NL50] [SH] Analysis of a turn semi bluff

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - €0.50 NL - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: €56.56
      UTG: €50.00
      Hero (BTN): €56.94
      SB: €50.25 From Blinds: VP:21/PR:13/3B:9%/ 3k hands

      SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has 8:diamond: T:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to €1.50, SB raises to €5.50, fold, Hero calls €4.00

      Flop: (€11.50, 2 players) 4:heart: 8:spade: J:club:
      SB bets €6.50, Hero calls €6.50

      Turn: (€24.50, 2 players) 9:diamond:
      SB bets €15.00, Hero raises to €44.94, SB calls €23.25

      River: (€101.00, 2 players) 7:heart:

      I think T8o is a terrible hand to call 3B.I did it because he 3B quite a lot but I shouldn't with T8o.
      I think it is not a bad flop to float, only problem is that is 2nd barrel on the turn.

      I would like to focus on the turn semi bluff. As I was wondering how it was in terms of EV I did a full analysis of it. Feel free to comment on it:

      3B 9%: {77+,AJ+,ATs,KQs,KJs}
      After the 2 barrels his range is: {JJ+,88,99,AJ,KJs}

      I believe he will call my shove with {AA,KK,JJ,88,99} (30 combos) against which I have 25.3% equity. He will fold with {AJ,KJs,QQ} (26 combos).
      He will fold 46% of the time.
      Let's see now what is the Pfold to get EV=0:

      EV=Pfold*(39.50)+(1-PFold)*(0.253*(62.5-38.25)-38.25)
      EV=39.5*PFold+32.6725*PFold-32.11
      PFold= 44.4%

      The turn shove has a slightly positive EV if the assumptions are right (and ofc my calcs!) (mainly can we expect him to fold QQ and AJ)
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      players won´t b/f turn tp or overpair hand, since you can shove there too many pair+draw hands, so I think you don´t have any fold equity on the turn against tp+ hands
      but nevertheless I´d shove, since he can barrel there smt like AT, KQ,56s and so on, that you´re ahead of and if you are behind smt like AJ, then you have a lot of outs to hit your two pair, trips or straight