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[NL20-NL50] Nl50 Ak

    • z1pz0r
      z1pz0r
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 981
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (CO) ($50)
      Button ($47.75)
      SB ($36.85)
      BB ($82.55)
      UTG ($27.75)
      MP ($44.05)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
      2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, SB raises $4.75, 1 fold, Hero raises $11.50, SB calls $8

      Flop: ($26.50) Q, 3, J (2 players)
      SB bets $10, Hero folds

      Total pot: $26.50


      Villan is 53/36 over 20 hands with 33 3bet. Clear shove on flop? I think I have no fold equity and 10 outs against him.
      Thoughts?

      EDIT:
      Hand that happened some time later, different opponent, his stats are were 57/50 over 19 hands, no reads.

      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($73.85)
      Hero (BB) ($50)
      UTG ($23.90)
      MP ($54.35)
      Button ($49.75)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
      UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, Button bets $3, 1 fold, Hero raises $8.50, 1 fold, Button calls $6

      Flop: ($18.75) 10, Q, 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, Button bets $10.50, Hero raises $41 (All-In), Button calls $30.25 (All-In)

      Turn: ($100.25) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      River: ($100.25) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Total pot: $100.25
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Hand 1:
      I'd get it in vs him. eevn with 0% foldequity it should be +EV since he only has 25 left - we invest 25 for a total pot of 72, so we'd need 34% equity.
      Against a worst-case-range we have almost 33%, so if he's ever bet/folding or making a mistake by bet/calling a hand like AT we have a profitable shove:
      Board: Qh Jd 3s
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 32.814% 23.05% 09.76% 10269 4349.50 { AhKh }
      Hand 1: 67.186% 57.42% 09.76% 25582 4349.50 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

      Btw I'd consider 4betting bigger vs him (for value).

      Hand 2:
      3bet to $12 or even bigger for value vs him.

      As played on the flop if you have a read that he bets a lot when he smells weakness I like the check/shove.
      If you know he's bluffraising a lot betting $8 would be an option, too, to induce bluffraises.
      I'm not planning on folding against him when I have 2 overs and the nut gutshot.