[NL20-NL50] AK - top two pair, to back down or not to?

    • StoneJ
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 153
      Known players:

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A:club: , K:club:
      UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, 6 folds, BB calls $0.75.

      Flop: ($2.10) K:spade: , J:diamond: , 8:spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.65, BB calls $1.65.

      Turn: ($5.40) A:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.4, BB raises to $14.75, Hero raises to $27.05 (All-In), BB calls $10.93 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      River: ($56.76) 5:diamond: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $56.76

      Hey guys, this is the first hand I have posted here so I'm sorry if I've not followed any rules/etiquette! I've just recently moved up to NL25 after working through NL5 and NL10

      The obvious question is was I right to go all in on the turn in the face of such a big raise. I did not have any stats on the villain. My thoughts were that I'm ahead in this situation often enough to put it all in, I figured a lower two pair or top pair with the draw to the nut flush are well within the range. I was wondering if other people see it that way or think that I should have backed off on the turn raise?

  • 2 replies
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Obv this is a spot where you will be hating your life but imo you have to go broke unless you know your opponent.

      You have top two, I feel like majority of the players would c/r with an OESD, esp with QT of :spade:

      He can also have AJ/AT of :spade: etc etc etc ... lots of possibilities/combos

      Obv a lot of the times you are gonna see QT there, but vs unknown and
      all the possible hands he could be doing this with ... it's a real close 50/50 spot

      Board: Ks Jd 8s Ah

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 49.669% 45.50% 04.17% 961 88.00 { AcKc }
      Hand 1: 50.331% 46.16% 04.17% 975 88.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, A8s, KJs, QsJs, QTs, JsTs, AKo, AJo, A8o, KJo, QTo }
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think two pairs or 88 are mostly raising on the flop.
      So that leaves the question does he ever c/r that big anything else than QT. You should also see there A8, AJ and maybe some A high flushdraws, although passive players rather tend to c/c these hands. Second question is if he would even call pf utg raise with QT, he would likely call with QTs, but more often people would flat there AJ.
      I think you shouldn´t b/f top two pair, since he likely take c/r line on the turn with worse hands and sometimes smt like AsQs or AsTs that you´re ahead. So although I´m not happy getting all-in I´d still bet/shove turn