[NL2-NL10] My Mom Made Me Fold This!

    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      0.25/0.50

      I am BB with Ks7c. BU limps, SB folds and I check.

      Flop: AQQ with 2 spades. Check check

      Turn: 4 of spades. With my K high + flush draw I bet 0.75 with what I believe to be the best hand a lot. He calls.

      River A. He shoves $7.50 into the $2.75 pot. Villain is unknown. I ended up folding. I think I should have called though since he can turn any pocket pair and any busted flushdraw into a bluff here maybe. Him having an ace seems very unlikely. The only hand that makes sense for him to play this way and shove river is a Q.

      On the other hand overbets are usually used at these limits to extract more value from fishes like myself. Furthermore my mom told me to fold (and you should always listen to your mom). Thus I folded this one.

      What would you have done?
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      I would have bet the Flop myself to take the pot down on Flop & maybe with a Turnbarrel

      But as played you are saying something strange:
      think I should have called though since he can turn any pocket pair and any busted flushdraw into a bluff here maybe. Him having an ace seems very unlikely. The only hand that makes sense for him to play this way and shove river is a Q.
      Fact of the matter is:
      * You dont beat PP
      * You dont beat Qx
      * You chop chop with Kx

      You get 1.2:1 which means you have to be good more than 45% of the time which is rather difficult because I think he is rarely bluffing here

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by Gerv

      * You dont beat PP

      Gerv
      board is AQQ4A so he does beat PP JJ-
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      Yeah what thazar said. Pocket pairs lower than JJ get counterfeited. Please reevaluate river.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hmm I missed it - that's why a converted hand history are better - why don't you have the HH?

      On the other hand overbets are usually used at these limits to extract more value from fishes like myself.
      I also missed this one. I think one overbets more as a bluff rather than for value

      I only overbet for value if I beat obvious Trips in villain's hand regardless whether he is fish or reg (like QJ on QQ4-x-x)

      Still the risk-reward of this hero call is just not profitable enough in my opinion. I just stand by my reasoning based on odds/outs and his bluff frequency vs value frequency

      There are 21 combo's of 77-22 containing a , there are 16 combo's of A7 for example. now if we consider Qx as well then we see that the % of PPs are far below << 40-45%

      - Gerv
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      This hand was played on PKR and a few days ago they changed the format of their hand history AGAIN. I try to get the actual hand history when possible but I mostly play live so that is rarely possible.