[NL20-NL50] Nl 25 sh rush bottom set vs nit

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      BB ($25)
      UTG ($4.55)
      MP ($33.92)
      Hero (CO) ($38.33)
      Button ($49.69)
      SB ($14.05)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2
      2 folds, Hero bets $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($3) 2, 5, 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $2

      Turn: ($9) 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $6.25, Hero raises to $35.33 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls $15.75 (All-In)

      River: ($53) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Total pot: $53 | Rake: $2.65

      Villain is 9/7/12 1.9 3 bet over 140 hands

      In this hand I would have really liked a fold on the turn because I dont think I would be able to fold river vs a <pot size bet

      Now thinking about his range:
      -flushes as he appears very tight he wont have many in his range, mainly Ahigh and Khigh flushes wick I think he is just c/r the flop because he is not afraid of being drawn out and frequently is getting one more bet from me.
      -overpairs with his AF factor I don't assume he is calling OOP big overpairs so I don't expect one often
      -bluffs - that AF looks incredibly high but in correlation with his Vpip/ PFR it mainly says that he is very tight and very aggressive with those hands

      I was considering some of these facts during play but because the board paired I couldn't help myself :D
  • 6 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Raise the flop.

      You're not serious about folding the turn with a full house right?

      Set over set happens, obviously, but it's just unlucky, and it's compensated in the long run by the times you have the higher set.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Call on the flop seems fine and then evaluate on the turn how big he is betting, mostly planning calling him down.
      I think he would b/f his overpairs and maybe also A high flushdraws to your turn shove, you don´t afraid most cards, so I´d just call and let him bluff on the river if he happens to have some kind of draw or overpair
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by falcone1983
      Raise the flop.

      You're not serious about folding the turn with a full house right?

      Set over set happens, obviously, but it's just unlucky, and it's compensated in the long run by the times you have the higher set.
      Because he is a 9/7 guy yeah I am serious.

      Don't know really what is the best play but I am pretty sure that he is playing mostly an overset that way.
      If I had something like 400 hands on him and he was donking for the first time I think I was deff folding

      My opinion is that he is bluffing in max 10 % cases on the flop, and the nut flush which is like the only flush he is going to have is check raising 100% bec he has the nuts.
      As for the overpairs in his range, those are a small percent as well.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      This turncard is basically the best possible one for your hand. the only hands you have to worry about now are: 88/55. 85o is not in his range as is so tight.

      There are way more combinations of overpairs with :diamond: and made flushes that he might over/missplay than the one combination of quads and 3 combos of 55 which are ahead of you.

      I think calling the flop is fine - and on this turn card, we are just trying to work out how to get as much money from him between now and the River (I don't think we can ever consider folding a fh on a 3flush board for 100bb).

      Overall I think calling the turn is best, with the plan of shoving the River if he bets and betting big if he checks, but if you think he is bet/calling his flushes or overpairs on turn then shoving is fine - another :diamond: may scare him off on the river.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by Tim64
      This turncard is basically the best possible one for your hand. the only hands you have to worry about now are: 88/55. 85o is not in his range as is so tight.

      There are way more combinations of overpairs with :diamond: and made flushes that he might over/missplay than the one combination of quads and 3 combos of 55 which are ahead of you.

      I think calling the flop is fine - and on this turn card, we are just trying to work out how to get as much money from him between now and the River (I don't think we can ever consider folding a fh on a 3flush board for 100bb).

      Overall I think calling the turn is best, with the plan of shoving the River if he bets and betting big if he checks, but if you think he is bet/calling his flushes or overpairs on turn then shoving is fine - another :diamond: may scare him off on the river.
      On that turn I am sure that folding is not an option.
      On a blank turn I am not sure that calling down is the best option. Anyway I assume that us the best we can do so that we do not appear to weak.

      Btw if I had like 600-1k hands on him and the stats were the same is calling down still the best option?
    • dubadal
      dubadal
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2008 Posts: 263
      He is calling .75 into 2.25 and getting three to one odds. With his image you can probably polarize him to AKs, JJ+.

      There is however a fun point, which sorta dawned on me: you have 140 hands on him, so lets assume that he has at least as many on you.

      With his 140 hands on you:
      he could have you on around 30% range (assumption...)
      you probably have cbet and/or call cbet around 40%+ (assumption...)

      and all of a sudden, he gets extra 2 bucks from implied odds and lets say another 1 for SB calling flop as well. which means he is .75/5.25 preflop and thats the seven to one he needs to try and flop a set, which means that he could actually get in with any pair.

      the implied odds are calculated differently obv, but this calculation is the sort of excuse that many peoples in rush seem to be using to get in with any pair and hoping to catch a set...

      P.S. I still don't think that you should check call it here though, FH must be ai'd! :f_biggrin: