[NL2-NL10] NL10 : Giving up AA

    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)     
      Position:
      Stack
      MP1:
      $10.14
      Hero:
      $9.85

      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:club: , A:spade:
      MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.15) K:spade: , 9:club: , J:spade: (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.10, MP1 raises to $3.60, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $5.85

      Correctly played ?
  • 17 replies
    • degnic
      degnic
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2007 Posts: 3,953
      I would atleast call his flop check/raise and see what he does on turn, you have the position, so that helps. I think normally you should be ahed of his limp/call range, but if he keeps betting big on turn with his very low AF, you propably have to fold.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well, discount stats for a moment.
      I have Tracker, but no HUD.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I think the fold was right. IMO Most of the time check/raise means strength. Villain here probably has two pair or straight, maybe lower set too.

      Besides it, if he calls the flop, the pot will be too big on the turn for him to fold.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Those were my thoughts too.
      Do I want to risk a third of my stack into a pot with a mere overpair, where a turnbet means going all-in ...

      I don't know the guy, so if he's a decent player, he mostly likely held 99.
      If he's more of a donk, a hand in the range of a slowplayed JJ, KK is possible, as well at KJ or QT, only an overplayed KQ or a slowplayed AK I could beat. I don't believe he was on a mere flush draw, people at NL10 rarely make moves like that on a draw.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Call the checkraise. Fold to a turnbet and reconsider on the river. I'd be hard pressed to call if he makes a decent sized bet on the river.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by Timor83
      Call the checkraise. Fold to a turnbet and reconsider on the river. I'd be hard pressed to call if he makes a decent sized bet on the river.
      If hero calls here, the pot on the turn will be $8.35 and his stack will be $5.75, how will he fold to a turn bet?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well, I see 3 options
      1) Fold because I don't want to risk my stack with only an overpair
      2) Push because of table image, fold equity and decent hand
      3) Call the checkraise en fold the turnbet to anything but a Q, T, A or :spade: as they'd give me additional outs.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      He'll just have to press the fold button, I guess. I don't see the problem. If Villain goes all in on the turn or river it'll still be a 2/3 pot sized bet which you can easily fold. It's borderline, but not impossible.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I don't think option 3 is really doable. My opinion.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by Timor83
      He'll just have to press the fold button, I guess. I don't see the problem. If Villain goes all in on the turn or river it'll still be a 2/3 pot sized bet which you can easily fold. It's borderline, but not impossible.
      After putting in (almost) half his stack in the middle? I wouldn't fold.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      The main problem is that I said to myself that in order to improve my game, I should stop paying off sets.
      Perhaps it's a little bit weak-tight, but I just couldn't see him checkraise with anything but KJ, QT or 99. I kinda ruled out AK or KQ, those are usually raised preflop, not double cold called, even by NL10 donks.
    • degnic
      degnic
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2007 Posts: 3,953
      I agree with Timor here, folding to a check/raise is imo just too weak here. Most people would check/raise here even with AK/KQ/KT, something like T8 :spade: and maybe some other worse hands than yours too. If you call his reraise, he's unlike to bet those hands again on turn. Also if 3rd :spade: comes up on turn, usually he just checks and you get to see free river. I don't think you're pot commited even if you call his check/raise.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I still agree with sonic's play. :D

      If a player is agressive enough to check/raise AK, KQ, KT... he's crazy enough to push on the turn.

      And if villain has T :spade: 8 :spade: , he's actually ahead, it's almost a coin flip though.

      I'd wait for a better spot to put my money in.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      I would call and reevaluate on the turn. U have 1.5:1 pot odds, descent hand, backdoor nut flushdraw, possible straight draw, 2 ace outs and position.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      Either I fold to the reraise or I see myself ahead and go all the way. I don't think calling and folding to a turn bet makes a lot of sense. Against a passiv opponent, I think folding to the c/r is fine - he typically doesn't make it with TP...
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Since I have A :spade: I would go all-in. The board is very drawy and he could easily be drawing. Limp/call doesnt always mean set:) at NL10
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      People on NL10 don't checkraise a draw.
      The only OESD he could have is T8, but would they call a preflop raise with that hand ? If he had a flush draw, it would have been the 2nd nut draw at best, so would they play it this agressively ? Only :spade: Q :spade: 8 ... maybe.
      I'm still presuming at least half of my opponents are donks, which they are, so I think I could put villain on this hand range, with the blue ones being most likely.

      Overplayed hands : T8, QT, K9, J9
      Passive played hands : AA, KK, JJ, AK
      Normal range : 99, KQ, KJ, any Q high flush draw

      Equity AA : 45,23 %
      Equity KK+, JJ, 99, AK, KQ, KJ, QT, T8, :spade: Q:spade: x : 54.77 %

      Given it's either push or fold, i'm a 5 to 4 dog when I push (I really don't believe I had fold equity here).
      So we get :

      Fold : -1.60 $ total (EV0 decision)
      Push : -9.85 $ + 45.23 % of 19.85 $ pot (8.95 $) : -0.90 $ (+EV for 7 BB)

      However, as I stated, some hands I thought were more likely than others and against those I'd have 39.3 % equity and a push would be a -EV decision for 4BB there.

      At best a coinflip decision ... I guess both push and fold would've been correct. For now, I prefer fold because I'm up against players who're really keen on playing their hands for current value and don't often semibluff, certainly with a big checkraise. My bankroll also still is in the lower limits allowed for NL10 play, so I guess it's safer to be a bit too tight than a bit too loose.