Quick odds question from math idiot

    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hey guys, just a quick question. Sorry if there is an article about this, but I wasn't able to find an answer.

      Say MP raises to $3, I call with 66 in CO, and the BB sqeezes. If MP calls, how much can I call profitably assuming I only win when I hit my set and stacks are all 100bb. Also, what if CO is a short stack? How can I calculate this?

      Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I am retarded and math makes my head hurt.

      Thanks!
  • 6 replies
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by Hajler
      Hey guys, just a quick question. Sorry if there is an article about this, but I wasn't able to find an answer.

      Say MP raises to $3, I call with 66 in CO, and the BB sqeezes. If MP calls, how much can I call profitably assuming I only win when I hit my set and stacks are all 100bb. Also, what if CO is a short stack? How can I calculate this?

      Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I am retarded and math makes my head hurt.

      Thanks!
      what limit are you playing?
    • neznanec21
      neznanec21
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2009 Posts: 34
      Assuming you're playing nl100, that means MP raises to 3BB, Hero calls and BB squeezes with a bet to 12BB. If MP doesn't call, you definitely don't get the right odds to call. If MP does call, there's 25BB in the pot, and you only have to call 9BB to get those 25BB and probably the whole 100BB stack of at least one of them if you hit your set, as both have shown great strength preflop. If you're shortstacked, it's an insta fold since you don't get the right implied odds to call.
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hello again, thanks for the quick answers.

      Yes I meant to write NL100, sorry about that. Basically what I want to know is exactly how much I can call - sometimes villain will squeeze to $12, sometime $15 etc. I am never short stacked but sometimes one of the other players will have say a 70bb stack or so, and I was wondering how that factors into the eqation.

      Sorry for not being more clear, thanks again. :f_biggrin:
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Good question.

      Difficult to answer in a vacuum without some more information on the other players. In particular, how often is the BB squeezing here and what range do you think he’s squeezing with? Are these guys likely to stack off with an overpair or TPTK type hand?

      Be good if someone better at maths could confirm my numbers below. These are obviously basic numbers in any event and assume you win the pot when you hit and lose when you miss. Maybe one of the coaches can help with more complex analysis.

      Scenario 1 –BB squeezes to 12bb, MP folds
      Here you have to call 9bb to play IP in a three bet pot of 25.5bb.

      The odds of flopping a set (or better) is 11.8% or roughly 1 in 8.5 (7.5:1 as a ratio).

      In order to make this a breakeven call you need to win a total of 76.5bbs (8.5 x 9bb) when you hit your set (assuming you never win the pot when you miss). So you need to win, on average, an extra 51bb (76.5bbs less the 25.5bbs already in the pot) every time you hit.

      So basically, the narrower the squeezing range/more likely he is to stack off with worse the more often you can call here as you will be more likely to win your 51bbs. Reads are clearly the key here.

      For example If Villain is squeezing 5% (99+, AQo, AQs, KQs), the call starts to look marginal as you are less likely to stack him unless he’s a maniac. He’s probably not going to go crazy with TT on an A6Q board for example.

      This spot is pretty dynamic and read dependant.

      Scenario 2 –BB squeezes to 12bb, MP calls
      Here, because of the extra money in the pot from MP you only need to win on average an extra 39bb (76.5bbs less the 37.5bbs already in the pot) every time you hit and there are two players who could pay you off.

      By default, I think you can call here.

      Scenario 3 – BB squeezes to 15bb, MP folds
      Here you need to win a total of 102bb when you hit (8.5 x 15bb). This equates to 68.5bb (102bb less 33.5bb already in the pot) more that you need to average when you hit.

      This is starting to get tougher and you can only really call against a narrow squeeze range and/or against spewy players or calling stations.

      By default, I think this is a fold without a specific reason to call.

      Scenario 3 – BB squeezes to 15bb, MP calls
      Because of the extra money in the pot you need to win 53.5bb in this scenario.

      This is closer and your reads will obviously factor but by default, I think this is a call.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Calling 3-bets with pocket pairs for set value is a common leak. Overcalling a squeeze can be ok at times, but sometimes it is not right, either. You have to consider several things:

      1) You won't always get paid off. No one says AK unimroved has to stack off, and AK is less likely to hit when you have spiked a set. JJ will not stack off on an AQ9 flop, and probably not AT9.

      2) You might get coolered with set over set. This is unlikely, but so was flopping a set in the first place. This takes a significant amount of equity away from your sets, since you almost always lose a huge pot when this happens.

      3) You might get your money in ahead, and get drawn out. A flush draw has about 25% equity against a set. Even an overpair might have 9% equity, or more with many backdoor draws.

      Usually, these mean that you want to be able to get more than 12 times the cost of your call, even under ideal circumstances when you think you are likely to be up against AA (but can't get away from set under set). Against a wider range, you need more implied odds.
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hi again!

      @JonikoP

      Great post! Thats exactly what I wanted to know, thanks a lot. :s_grin:


      @pzhon

      Thanks for the advice!