[NL2-NL10] NL10 KK turn shove?

    • nktns
      nktns
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 452
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($9.95)
      Hero ($10)
      UTG ($30.65)
      UTG+1 ($1.28)
      CO ($17.83)
      BTN ($7.85)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, SB calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.40, BTN calls $1.05, fold

      FLOP ($3.15) 8:club: 9:diamond: 3:heart:

      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      TURN ($6.15) 8:club: 9:diamond: 3:heart: A:diamond:

      Hero bets $7.10 (AI), BTN calls $4.95 (AI)

      RIVER ($16.05) 8:club: 9:diamond: 3:heart: A:diamond: 4:heart:

      vpip: 24, pfr: 16, af: 0.5, 26 hands
  • 7 replies
    • McHallow
      McHallow
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.11.2010 Posts: 39
      Going from his stats, which I know is a reasonably small sample, despite this I find that well over 50% of his range puts him on A high pair, A high two pair or trips.

      This I think you're gross overbet on the turn was wrong. Im not entirely sure what I would do, but I think i'd do a reasonable continuation bet and if he shows aggression by raising it id quite happily put him on an Ace, maybe A8/A9 especially with his low agr frequency and fold it out.
    • nktns
      nktns
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 452
      Turn wasn't an overbet he had less than a pot left so i cant check-fold if i bet out and i think he wont have A8 or A9 too often in 3bet pot.
    • McHallow
      McHallow
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.11.2010 Posts: 39
      True, I overlooked his smaller stack, nonetheless even if you tighten up his range to about 5% You are still looking at 60% of his possible hands dominating you, 1 drawing with you, and only beating KQs, And QQ-1010.

      I just threw up some calcs and I think that I wouldn't have felt comfortable pushing him there when 60% of his cards beat you, I think the odds are slightly against you. I could (good chance tbh, I still haven't nailed the maths yet ;P) be wrong though. Out of interest, how did it end up? PM if you don't want it on here.
    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      maybe check/call turn to make TT and JJ bluff, if he checks behind bet/call river
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nktns,

      I'd just bet flop also a bit bigger, ~$2, otherwise I'd just Check/Call the turn since he will have hard time folding a lot worse here. But still could stack us on river if we bet for example with hands like TT+. If he for example had a lot more hands then we might even be able to fold it on turn but not against such sample size.

      Best regards.
    • Oly0909
      Oly0909
      Silver
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 843
      1. I'm sorry but I don't understand the difference. Pot is >$6 and his stack is <$5 so either way your money goes in. I thought in this kind of situation it's allways better to shove yourself then to call his shove.

      2. Why don't you consider check/fold here? It's 3betted pot so if he has a pair that A is a scare card for him too, so he could gladely check behind, and if he has A or more you're allready beat so no need to invest any more money.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      1. I'm sorry but I don't understand the difference. Pot is >$6 and his stack is <$5 so either way your money goes in. I thought in this kind of situation it's allways better to shove yourself then to call his shove.

      Just put yourself into his spot and you having TT, JJ or QQ, would you Call the shove? No, you could be scared of the Ace and might think that he CBet with hand like AK and now hit.

      2. Why don't you consider check/fold here? It's 3betted pot so if he has a pair that A is a scare card for him too, so he could gladely check behind, and if he has A or more you're allready beat so no need to invest any more money.

      As I said we don't have enough stats on him, he could also push against us on turn TT+ since he could think that he makes us folding better hands. But if you think other view, why he even should push there on turn if he hits Ace? More often he would Check behind and shove the river, that's what I would do in that case and likely there are more of such players. Therefore would stats a lot help you to try understand what kind the opponent is.