[NL2-NL10] NL5 JJ donking into Axx

    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      donk? float? fold to c-bet?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5
      MP2:
      $9,47

      0,02/0,05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with J:spade: , J:club:
      Hero raises to $0,17, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0,45, 5 folds, Hero calls $0,28.

      Flop: ($0,97) A:spade: , 5:heart: , 2:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,45, MP2 calls $0,45.

      Turn: ($1,87) T:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 checks.

      River: ($1,87) 7:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 checks.

      Final Pot: $1,87

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows (Js Jc)
      MP2 shows a pair of kings (Ks Kd)

      MP2 wins with a pair of kings (Ks Kd)
  • 4 replies
    • funktor
      funktor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 922
      Hi YourDoom!

      You are UTG1 and got re-raised by nitty player. Fold your JJ most of the time. If you were both 200BB deep, you can call for set value.

      As played: I am most likely check-folding flop here as all his range QQ+, AK hit. He is not going to fold to single street barrel (of 1/2POT).

      Regards

      Funktor
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Hey 1 quick thing, you need to consider his 3betting range here.

      1) if his range is like 2% you need to fold pre, you don't get odds to setmine and you are doing so shit vs his range, and on non-A high boards u get value towned by QQ,KK,AA and on A high boards u r folding too often.

      2) if he has like 10% 3b range u can call profitably, not for a set mine, but to actually play your hand post since he has alot of airball, smaller pairs and suited connectors in his range. You gotta be confident in your reads and postflop game if you want to call here though. Folding is never too bad, we are OOP and even when we are ahead he is going to put us in tough spots :)
    • YourDoom
      YourDoom
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2010 Posts: 878
      I think its at least call for setmining - call is just 1/17.85 of effective stack, BUT there are already chips in pot, plus if I hit he can play for stack with KK+ easily -> I will get more on average so 17.85 is good enough imo.
    • funktor
      funktor
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 922
      Your effective stacks are $5.

      On flop POT is $1, with remaining $4.5 behind. He is going broke with TPTK, overpair here every time.

      Your odds for hitting set are about 1:7.5. So you end up folding flop 7.5 times for $0.45, and in 75% of the time when you hit you will win his stack $5 and what you invested ~$0.45. And 5% you will losses your set (-$5) and rest you will win POT+c-bet that is about $1.6

      So what we have here...

      EV = -7.5/8.5*0.45 + 1/8.5*(0.75*5.45 + 0.2*1.6 - 0.05*$5) = $0.09

      So at best call here is marginal and expects that we will stack villain often. So unless you are sure he goes with KK+ for 3-bet just fold, because you will not extract enough value from your sets.

      Regards

      Funktor