[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - AQo - oop vs reg

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.75)
      BB ($14.50)
      Hero ($50)
      UTG+1 ($61.75)
      CO ($42.80)
      BTN ($52.65)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $2, fold, CO calls $2, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.75) 9:spade: 2:diamond: Q:heart:

      Hero bets $4, CO calls $4

      TURN ($12.75) 9:spade: 2:diamond: Q:heart: J:spade:

      Hero checks, CO checks

      RIVER ($12.75) 9:spade: 2:diamond: Q:heart: J:spade: T:heart:

      Hero checks, CO bets $12.75, Hero folds

      CO wins $12.15

      villain is a regular 29/20/2, wts 30, 500 hands, 3b 8%
      I would give villain a range for calling my pot size cb on this flop something like:{99,9Ts,J9s,AQ,KQ,22,TJ,KTs, QJs}. Does this seem about right?

      I have about 52.9% equity versus this range on the turn. Given that we would have to fold to a raise now, is it worth value betting again? is my turn play too weak?

      Against the above range, on the River I have only 8% equity so check/fold seems correct.

      thanks
  • 2 replies
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      His range on the flop is much wider than your estimation.

      He has at the minimum 99/22, QTs+, KQo+, almost any pocket pair, JTs, various 9x, a couple of Ace high floats, and a couple of gutshots+BDFD floats (KJs, T8s, etcetera).

      So you should bet the turn for value (and fold to a raise).

      As played river is a check/fold.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by falcone1983
      His range on the flop is much wider than your estimation.

      He has at the minimum 99/22, QTs+, KQo+, almost any pocket pair, JTs, various 9x, a couple of Ace high floats, and a couple of gutshots+BDFD floats (KJs, T8s, etcetera).

      So you should bet the turn for value (and fold to a raise).

      As played river is a check/fold.
      +1
      I would also barrel turn, since Js is not the worst card in the deck and he can still call you with worse hands like pair+draw or Qx
      I also would c/f river