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[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - TT mwp - turning top set - facing 100bb shove

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($52.85)
      BB ($20.95)
      UTG ($28.50)
      Hero ($70.15)
      CO ($74.05)
      BTN ($24.45)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: T:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, fold

      FLOP ($8) 3:club: 4:diamond: 5:diamond:

      SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5, CO calls $5, BTN folds, SB folds, UTG folds

      TURN ($18) 3:club: 4:diamond: 5:diamond: T:heart:

      Hero bets $12, CO raises to $67.55 (AI), Hero calls $51.65 (AI)

      RIVER ($145) 3:club: 4:diamond: 5:diamond: T:heart: 2:diamond:

      villain unk. 14 hands.

      In order to call the shove I need 36%. I dont think I can assume villain shoves any draws here, so his range has to inclue at least the top two sets on the flop otherwise Im not getting the right price (i.e. if Im up against only 55/67s) I must fold.

      How to find the correct decision here without reads? Is it reasonable to say that when we are wrong, we lose only $18 (because we get back 23% of $145 even against 67s) whereas when villain has 33/44/55 here we win so much (97% of $145) that we have to accept the risk?

  • 7 replies