[NL2-NL10] N10. AA v Shipped river

    • parry
      parry
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 92
      PKR $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

      Hero (UTG): $9.93
      CO: $17.76
      BTN: $17.87
      SB: $6.02 19/6 (246 hands)
      BB: $16.66

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A:club: A:spade:
      Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($1.20) 2:club: 8:diamond: 4:spade: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BTN folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

      Turn: ($3.00) 6:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

      River: ($6.00) 6:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $3.32, Hero calls $3.32


      Ran this hand through Equalitor giving the villain the range of JJ-66, 44, 22 at the river (choose pocket pairs JJ down as flop mostly likely missed any drawing hands in their pre-flop calling range and most likely 3 betting QQ+). Equalitor says i have 70% equity against this range so i called even though i was leaning more to them having hit a set and turned a full house.

      With the villain playing passively until shipping the turn does it point to a strong hand or are over pairs still in his range?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello parry,

      I'd rather just bet bigger on turn, ~$2 so it would be a lot easier for us on river. :) On river it's hard to fold against such stack, therefore I'd also Call it, unless I have some other reads or stats on the opponents.

      Best regards.
    • Edukator99
      Edukator99
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 240
      Just sitting here looking at the hand outside of the heat of the moment. I makes sense to me that he calls with a pocket pair. 22, 88 or 44.

      The reason I think this is the check call on the flop.

      I would assume he'd raise preflop with QQ KK, JJ, and maybe 10 10.

      If he doesn't raise preflop with those hands...I can't see him betting like that on the river without a set or full house.

      I'm still learning tho. :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Edukator99
      Just sitting here looking at the hand outside of the heat of the moment. I makes sense to me that he calls with a pocket pair. 22, 88 or 44.

      The reason I think this is the check call on the flop.

      I would assume he'd raise preflop with QQ KK, JJ, and maybe 10 10.

      If he doesn't raise preflop with those hands...I can't see him betting like that on the river without a set or full house.

      I'm still learning tho. :)
      That's true but why do you bet the turn then? It's rather then just go for pot control and reevaluate river, with betting on turn we are just making pot ready to shove the river. And often in that limit against such loose opponents I'd prefer to Bet/Bet/Bet here anyway. And we can't just fold our AA in this situation, we also killed few 2pair type of hands on flop. And sometimes even with just OP. Also take into account that his stack is only 60BB and such stack ain't used by good players, more often we are here against a bad player, therefore, I don't really see why we should fold it here without any reads or stats.
    • parry
      parry
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 92
      Edukator99 - previously seen this player flat with jacks OOP (granted not a very big sample) thats why the range i was giving was pocket pairs of Jacks and down and the 70% equity from Equilator included their made hands. Players at these stakes will shove the river with overpairs even after their opponent has had the betting initiative on each street (well they do on PKR anyway ;) )

      Certainly gave the possibility of a flopped set consideration and thats why i was left with a awkward decision on the river. As veriz pointed out if i was betting the turn i should of bet larger to make the river decision more straight forward.

      Disagree about check calling the flop especially considering that there were 4 players to the flop and there was only 1 player to act behind me.
    • Edukator99
      Edukator99
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2010 Posts: 240
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by Edukator99
      Just sitting here looking at the hand outside of the heat of the moment. I makes sense to me that he calls with a pocket pair. 22, 88 or 44.

      The reason I think this is the check call on the flop.

      I would assume he'd raise preflop with QQ KK, JJ, and maybe 10 10.

      If he doesn't raise preflop with those hands...I can't see him betting like that on the river without a set or full house.

      I'm still learning tho. :)
      That's true but why do you bet the turn then? It's rather then just go for pot control and reevaluate river, with betting on turn we are just making pot ready to shove the river.
      Yes that's what I meant. I think I would have checked turn, but then if he bets... I would have called I suppose. If he doesn't I've got pot control. His call on the turn as is seems strangely strong for such a weak board. He might be bad...or he might have a monster. :)