Axs from EP/MP is profitable to ...

    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Hi Friends,

      I wonder if anybody can help me with this simple calculation. I would like find out if in the long run play a determinate hand is profitable or not and because the lack of appropriate number of hands played, I was wondering if there is any math that may be help.

      For example, I want know if playing an Axs from EP/MP with a limp is profitable in the long run, obviously by assume that we play only to hit the nuts (flush) as I think it will be simple. So, after, with the right math maybe it will be possible calculate even other points like TP, 2P, etc.
      Thanks in advance to any kind math wizard :heart:


      P.S. Sorry but I really don't know where to post this thread. So, I thought in the General Poker Discussion cannot definitely be wrong. Please, feel free to move to the appropriate place if you think it is necessary, so maybe I can learn for next time where are going this sort of threads. TY
  • 5 replies
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,947
      Originally posted by kiromanAAKK
      Hi Friends,

      I wonder if anybody can help me with this simple calculation. I would like find out if in the long run play a determinate hand is profitable or not and because the lack of appropriate number of hands played, I was wondering if there is any math that may be help.

      For example, I want know if playing an Axs from EP/MP with a limp is profitable in the long run, obviously by assume that we play only to hit the nuts (flush) as I think it will be simple. So, after, with the right math maybe it will be possible calculate even other points like TP, 2P, etc.
      Thanks in advance to any kind math wizard :heart:


      P.S. Sorry but I really don't know where to post this thread. So, I thought in the General Poker Discussion cannot definitely be wrong. Please, feel free to move to the appropriate place if you think it is necessary, so maybe I can learn for next time where are going this sort of threads. TY
      I so keep hoping that being a maths wizard is enough to make me good at poker, but sadly it doesn't seem to help much. You can work out the chances of flopping the nut flush, but what are your chances of getting paid off? You can work out your chances of flopping a flush draw, but how are you going to continue, particularly OOP? Will you cbet? What if you get raised? How will conitnue on the turn if you don't hit the flush? Can you bluff the river if you miss?

      My conclusion?

      It's probably not a maths question. And if it is, it's probably too hard. If it wasn't, computers would be able to play NL100 BSS. Fortunately, they can't.

      Sorry.
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Limping in with these hands is almost certainly bad and will lose you money. You should always be open raising when you enter the pot.

      In a FR game, I would fold anything less than ATs in EP without a specific reason to open it. In MP it's starting to get a bit more dynamic and you can perhaps start to open more Axs if players still to act are tight and there are fish in the blinds.
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Silver
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hello!

      I agree with jbpatzer, the example you gave isnt really a math problem at all. For the most part open limping in general is a bad idea and won't show much profit.

      The reason for this is simple - when you limp from UTG how often are you going to get to see a flop for no further cost? Not that often I would think. So what do you do when someone raises behind you? Limp/folding will start to add up to a lot of cash quick even if 1bb seems small.

      Limp/calling also sucks, as you will be forced to give up on the flop most of the time. Even if you do get 2 of your suit on the flop, it is still going to cost you more money to draw, and you will miss most of the time as well. Finally, even if you hit, a flush is the least disguised of all drawing hands, and if you have been playing check/call your hand will pretty much be face up and you won't get any further value from it.

      That said, limping behind in middle/late position is fine(iso raise is often better)when others have already limped in. Even if you get a raise behind you often get good odds call if the other limpers do.

      Hope it helps.
    • conall88
      conall88
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      in fact this is a maths question. unfortunately I don't know much about game theory. that is exactly the topic you want to read up on if you want to answer this question. I learnt a little when learning programming, but its not enough to answer the question in a clear manner:



      wiki it :

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

      pay attention to the metagames section btw.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Hi Guys,
      First of all thanks a lot for your contribute :) you don't image how helpful you all have been for me. I am really grateful to you all you have finally clear my head
      Thanks for that :heart: