bad swing or is William hill very scetchy??

    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      is it normal to play tight bankroll management and be down over 30% of the bankroll? I have played 5 days now (put in 200 + 50) and I am getting drawn out, I have terrible setups, and then Im sucked out even more... I can feel how I am about to tilt away the last 70% of the roll soon if this keeps coming. I am playing up to $5sng and max .02-.04 nl tables.
      Just an example of what it looks like. sitting with the BI on a NL table and I have KK. The guy calls me from preflop to river with 10 7 (nothing interesting on the flop) and manage to hit runner runner straight (no pair or anything) (5% of his stack was left after my turn bet) so he didnt try to bluff or anything. The hand after Im a little bit tilted have 97 suited and I get a flush draw on flop (I bet each street and on turn I also get a straight draw) and on river he hits runner runner straight (once again-same guy- the guy puts in all but about 5% before river and hit runner runner without trying to bluff) Obviously if I kept playing against him I would tighten up considerably and only play made hands but I had to leave bc I was soooo tilted.
      This was probably the worst two hands but it has been a lot aa vs jj and kk vs 1010 etc and they hit their 2 outer (all in preflop).
      Just to clearify...... I would have played a few hands differently if I could go back, but lossing coinflips 5 out of 6 times and not being able to win when I get the money in with the best of it starts getting very frustrating.....
      And so is this a sick downswing or is Wililam Hill very scetchy?
  • 20 replies
    • L3ST
      L3ST
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      How many buy-ins under EV? Post a graph, some stats, eventually some hand history. You can't get a decent answer without them.

      From my POV, there's nothing out of the ordinary on William Hill after about 15K hands with them, although I've seen lots of suckouts and setups there.

      Try finding leaks. You might not want to put all your money in the pot with an overpair. At showdown, it's just an overpair. Anyway, hand-history is needed to have a decent debate.
    • joecar
      joecar
      Silver
      Joined: 09.04.2008 Posts: 347
      If your using the 50 starting capital you shouldnt be play NL 4 or $5 SNG.
      Set a stop loss for yourself so you don't tilt
      Don't tilt
      Maybe your a fish and should read up and watch videos. post hands in evaluation forum etc
    • L3ST
      L3ST
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      250 BR, read again :)
    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      Where do you/how do you create a graph and all that? I would like to see it myself :P .

      Txs
    • joecar
      joecar
      Silver
      Joined: 09.04.2008 Posts: 347
      Originally posted by L3ST
      250 BR, read again :)
      facepalm


      you can get a trial of HEM and get a graph off that or PT3
    • L3ST
      L3ST
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      You download and install Pokertracker 3 or Hold'em Manager ( free trials are available for 60 days for PT3 and 15 days for HEM ). After installing, import all hands from the platform you are playing. It's gonna take a while, get some coffee.
      After you import is complete, you'll find Graphs in the program. Check the "Show all-in EV" box and you'll see another line next to your profit/loss line. Right-click, export, and put it up here.
    • Almonds79
      Almonds79
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2010 Posts: 20
      i feel your pain man,got my starting capital in willhill as i had account on most of the otherrs so it wasnt by choice really.
      not going to bad mouth any site but ipoker is a big no no for me from now on, do pretty ok every where else i play except there so i will just stay away from now on.
      victor Chandler poker recently moved to entraction from ipoker after doing a survey of it players so im guessing a lot of people feel the same, must be something in it.
      anyways, good luck on the tables,you will need it1
      try making some bad calls and see what happens :D
    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      Lol almonds. Only hands I win are seriously those when im an underdog. Just got all in with 2 other guys preflop, one showing AA another K5 (for some reason) and I had KK........... River the last king X). I dont know, it is very scetchy, been playing for 6 straight days now and have never in my poker career (played for about 7.5 years) had close to this many bad beats.
      I was expecting the bad beats to "go away" after a while but they keep coming like they are the 85% favorites in the hands.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      use your head. the site/network has nothing to gain by picking you to screw over.

      you're probably running bad. or you're just not very good. but more than likely a combination of the two.
    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      WASY, they have a whole lot to gain if they are actually doing all this on purpose. Think about it... if the fish keeps hitting their 2 and 3 outers they will feel like they have a chance in the game and that they can actually make money (and not give up right away saying that it is too hard) and the good players (not saying im good but i know I am above average cause Ive made decent money since I started playing poker) will keep playing becuase they know they will make good money when the bad luck goes away....... Not saying that they are actually cheating but dont say that they dont have a reason to do it.
    • rbdflyboy
      rbdflyboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2008 Posts: 56
      When I can't reason why this is occuring, I find myself looking for a conspiracy theory to try to justify what I can't see (comprehend). Having been in this situation so many times and being able to bounce back restores my confidence. For me this is where tilt has the greatess effect on my play. My confidence gets rattled to my very core and it's very hard to shake off. Espically when playing hands I'm used to winning with turn on me and I lose monster pots.
      Another phenom that happens to me is shell shock. I mean after being beat so many times with quality holdings and playing correctly I reach a point where one more beat doesn't really matter anymore. There really isn't a way for me to justify what's going on. I can only hope this all ends sooner than later.
      I usually take a break and study more. I'll play on fun sites where I have nothing to lose but points. When I regain my confidence I start again hoping for the best.
      We don't live and play in isolation, meaning, I an sure many other players at all levels experience this as well.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,691
      Originally posted by wasy8
      use your head. the site/network has nothing to gain by picking you to screw over.

      you're probably running bad. or you're just not very good. but more than likely a combination of the two.
      deal setups, more rake? (at cash) :f_biggrin:

      But rly this is the only advice you need, also allin EV is BS, take your own example, if he has 5% of his stack left when he moves in then your not gonna be that far under.

      Get yourself a hud, start posting hands and finding leaks, look over your hands that your not sure about and think about every situation. 'Could I c/r here? Would worse call? Should I c/c bluff catch? Is he passive? Should I donk?' etc. And you'll soon find your leaks, better lines etc.

      Ofc its possible to lose 30% of your roll but its not all that likely. You have lost $75 right so thats 15BI, thats not all that uncommon so you probably have a combination of bad play and run bad with possibly additional bad play from tilt.

      GL, studying/mindset/volume is key.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Originally posted by masterroj
      WASY, they have a whole lot to gain if they are actually doing all this on purpose. Think about it... if the fish keeps hitting their 2 and 3 outers they will feel like they have a chance in the game and that they can actually make money (and not give up right away saying that it is too hard) and the good players (not saying im good but i know I am above average cause Ive made decent money since I started playing poker) will keep playing becuase they know they will make good money when the bad luck goes away....... Not saying that they are actually cheating but dont say that they dont have a reason to do it.
      the algorithm needed to make sure quote on quote bad players suck out is pretty much impossible to create and if very large patterns of these suckouts were recorded over a sample size of 40 million+ hands (pretty easy to do with sites like PTR) - it would be incredibly easy to detect that a site is 'setting up' or whatever garbage you want to use to validate your downswing. how do you set up the criteria for an algorithm to detect and categorize fish to make sure they suck out on you?

      with it being so easy to detect, the amount risked (ie the entire business) would be so much more than the amount potentially gained by 'setting you up' for a little bit more rake.

      so yes, there is no reason for them to do it, and yes, you are not using your head and being paranoid, and yes, you clearly need to better understand variance.
    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      well im not talking about rake from one hand but rake over time by keeping bad players. Im not talking about a program who some how can find fish and then ahve them suck out...... BUT...... Usually the fish are the once who calls all ins and are underdogs and so in one way YES they do find the fish and have them hit their cards to keep them in the game.............
      It would be very interesting to do a study such as you mentioned on William Hill but unfortunatelly I have no time over to do it.

      Maybe someone will one day and then we will maybe find something out.
      Thanks
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      they have nothing to gain, fish are going to redeposit since they don't know they're fish.

      there would have already been a huge scandal if a skin on a big network (ipoker is what like 5th network or something?) was rigged to keep the "bad players" in.

      I don't want to sound disrespectfull but aparently you don't have a clue about what variance is, FWIW I'm a bankroll nit (400bi+ BRM at sngs) and still managed to lose >10% of my bankroll in a session.
    • bogie
      bogie
      Global
      Joined: 23.09.2007 Posts: 109
      variance is a bitch!!!, Just suck it up and get on with it , there is nothing you can do about it if its going against you.Most of the players here have been through this and got through it.DONT LOSE YOUR HEAD AND KEEP GOING, Stick to BRM .
    • L3ST
      L3ST
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 413
      The simplest explanation why our beloved fishes suck out much more than us is that they have no understanding of the EV concept. If there's a card out there that saves them, they go for it.

      While we wouldn't call with 10% chance to win the pot, they will snap call. That's why we don't see the other side of winning the hand. We just don't account for the 5% to 10%. And that's why BRM was created. Fight another day.
    • masterroj
      masterroj
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.12.2010 Posts: 36
      I guess....... it is 9 straight days now and believe it or not but my bankroll is $320 (from$250). Been focusing mainly on MTT's now, and had a amazing run in a 18k guaranteed but with 27 players left and 3rd chipstack I had AQ and went all in with a guy who shows KJ off for some weard reason and he hits his J on turn and insetad of being a huge chipleader I went down to average and then I had 2 coinflips in a row and I went out in 23 and got $150 (felt so great about the tourney until that hand(even tho i wasnt a big favorite it owuld be nice to win a few of those pots).
      And right now Im playing a 2.5K R/A and was chip lead with 65 players left and haev AA and get it all in with 2 other players preflop (one AK, the other 77). Turn and river are 2 more hearts for a runner runner 4board hearts flush for AK (I would have had twice as many chips as number 2 with that pot), I have worked the stack back and am currently 7th biggest stack. WHEN IS the bad luck gonna go away??????????
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920


      But you, you always lose. There's nothing you can do about it.
    • 1
    • 2