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[NL2-NL10] A2s from MP2

    • Alficor1
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2, A.
      Hero raises to $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.05) T, A, 2 (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.90, MP3 folds, CO raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $9.70, CO calls $7.70.

      Turn: ($20.45) 9 (2 players)

      River: ($20.45) 9 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $20.45.

      Results follow:

      CO shows two pairs, aces and tens(Th Ac).
      Hero shows two pairs, aces and nines(2s As).

      CO wins with two pairs, aces and tens(Th Ac).

      I know i know.. fold pre wait for aces. But do you think we can get away from aces up on such flop? No stats/reads on villain.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Alficor1,

      It's actually kinda problematic all-in and what I don't really like. If you take into consideration what ranges he could be on and lets give him this range:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 25,354% 12,759% 25,189% 62,052% As2s
      Player 2: 74,646% 62,052% 25,189% 12,759% TT, 22, ATs, A2s, KcJc, QcJc, ATo, A2o

      That's most often the worst case likely.
      And for example if we add some Ax type of hand into his range:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 38,542% 29,815% 17,454% 52,731% As2s
      Player 2: 61,458% 52,731% 17,454% 29,815% TT, 22, AQs, ATs, A2s, KcJc, QcJc, AQo, ATo, A2o

      We getting this equity, therefore, I think it's rather a Bet/Fold line, if we put those ranges together and get an average, then it's kinda bad, and should put ourself in long run losing money. Therefore I'd rather prefer to have known opponent in this case to go all-in.

      Best regards.