[NL2-NL10] NL5 Bad River Villain Checks After Calling 2 Value Bets - Do we thin value bet here?

    • alexgeor
      alexgeor
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 56
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $2.50
      MP1:
      $8.40
      MP2:
      $7.16
      MP3:
      $8.64
      CO:
      $12.50
      BU (Hero):
      $4.93
      SB:
      $15.29
      BB:
      $5.95
      UTG1:
      $6.93

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, T.
      4 folds, MP3 calls $0.05, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.57) 2, K, J (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.40, MP3 calls $0.40.

      Turn: ($1.37) T (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00.

      River: ($3.37) 7 (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $3.37.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows two pairs, kings and tens(Kc Tc).

      MP3 shows high card king(5d 3d).

      Hero wins with two pairs, kings and tens(Kc Tc).

      Its my 3rd hand on the table no info about the villain.

      Thought process
      I dont think 2-2 or KJ or JT would check call on such a drawy board, why wouldnt they bet?

      also JJ / KK should have 3bet, or at least bet the drawy flop!


      So the only hands I could put him was

      1) He got his straight with AQ and flat calls to slow play but the river is bad for him in case I was betting with AK suited or smthin

      2) He is a bad flush-chaser and he now he got his flush is passivefish/wants to check-raise.

      3) He does not have a clue what he was chasing either.


      So, valuebetting here is razor thin at best, and -EV most of times, is this right?
  • 3 replies
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      You could as well be called on the turn by a king, or even JT.
      However you will hardly get value from jacks here because your line bet/bet/bet would certainly have throwed them away from the pot on the turn. The hands that could call you down are now 22, TT, (JJ, KK,), KJ, AQ, two hearts, and two pairs (KJ, KT...etc...)
      I think you will get called by best hands than yours most of the time. Also, you're on NL10, people slowplay their monsters everytime everywhere on everyboard against everyone. For this reason I generally valuebet flop + turn, and only valuebet river with a good hand. I don't think it is profitable to correctly thin valuebet against unknown in NL10. Everytime I tried to thin value my TPTK or stuff I ran into a set, flopped straight, 2pairs and all.

      (maybe I'm not objective since I just reviewed today's session, where I ran into a lot of slowplay of hands from space. the best one is my aces that bet bet bet onto a dry board, and lose the showdown to a T4o which flopped two pairs).
    • alexgeor
      alexgeor
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 56
      I dont think 2-2 or KJ or JT would check call on such a drawy board, why wouldnt they bet?

      also JJ / KK should have 3bet, or at least bet the drawy flop!


      So the only hand I could put him was

      1) Either he got his straight with AQ and flat calls to slow play but the river is bad for him in case I was betting with AK suited or smthin

      2) He is a bad flush-chaser and he now he got his flush is passivefish/wants to check-raise.

      3) He does not have a clue what he was chasing either.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello alexgeor,

      More often he would Check/Raise the turn to protect his hand from flush, if he had AQ. Therefore I might even consider betting the river also, there are still a lot of Kx type of hands which he may Call us. And also more often such opponents bet on river if they even do hit, rather than Check/Raise because they are scared that you may Check behind just because the flush came. I'd bet $1 on river on those stakes they just Call us down so light, that I wasn't even surprised if he would Call us with just Jx.

      Best regards.