Downswing or leaks

    • luitzen
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      I took up playing SSS again. I'm currently playing NL25 on Full Tilt where I lost 7 buy ins in 2 days. I loaded my hands in PokerTracker to take a look at my all-in EV to see whether I was playing bad or was just having a downswing. According to PokerTracker my winnings corrected for All-in EV were -12BI, so it appears that I even was being lucky. According to Elephant my winrate was -2,84 big blinds/100 hands and -1,42 big bets/100 hands according to PokerTracker. This was over 4815 hands and 6 more according to PokerTracker.

      Of course that doesn't mean that you're playing bad. If your pocket kings run into pocket aces every single time, your all-in EV will be negative, but your play won't be bad.

      What I quickly noticed was that my AQo, AJo/s and 99 were big red numbers.

      With 99 I won one big pot and I lost 3. The pot I won was where I raised from the BB and an early limper called. There were only low cards and my opponent didn't want to give up his bottom pair.

      The pots I lost were;
      -Against ATo when I shoved in on a 10 flop.
      -Against a AA-steal
      -Against a QQ-resteal

      I lost big pots with AQo when my c-bet ran into trips, a pair of K8s which hit top pair on the flop, set of 4s on the flop while I had a flush draw, a preflop push by CO when I was MP3, 99 against a very loose player with open pushes in late position (he was SB, I was BB), a failed c-bet which I checked down to the river, two failed c-bets in position, and one failed c-bet out of position.
      I won one pot on the flop with top hair, had one successful c-bet in position, and one failed c-bet with flush draw where I hit the flush on the river after checking down to the river and shoving it there. My opponent hit a set on the flop.

      AJo is a similar story. C-bet on T high flop, opponent checks down the river and shows AKo. Failed c-bet out of position on QQ3 flop, I folded when he raised. In one hand I hit top pair on the flop, my opponent goes all-in with bottom pair and hits two pair. And I folded to some re-raises pre-flop.

      AJs: c-bet on rainbow 298 flop fails. Turn is a T and I shove it because I have 12-14 outs against most pairs. Opponent calls and shows T8s.

      Now my question is, do you have any suggestions to improve my play or am I just nailed by variance. I will try to reduce c-bets and see if that helps.

      Thanks in advance.
  • 6 replies
    • Tampaloeres81
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416

      Check your hands, and post them on the forum.

      But -7 BI or -12 BI in 4k hands is nothing. I've had swings to -10 BI in 1k hands followed by +14 BI in the next 1k hands.

      Everybody has leaks, so fix them and ignore variance :f_biggrin:

    • luitzen
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      This is a summary of what went wrong.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by luitzen
      This is a summary of what went wrong.
      We need details to determine this. And the answer from T is just a standard answer from an experienced poster

      Your sample only says you are not Variance-bullet proof but concrete hand samples makes our analysis far better
    • luitzen
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      I thank Tampeloeres (I love this username:D ) for his input. I could post all the hands, but that would be very much work. I analysed my hands and I understand what went wrong and why. In a sample of almost 5000 hands there were not many big mistakes, so I guess I have to account for variance as well.

      I have never realised how big variance was. I have SSSed on lower limits before, where I was a losing player (possibly because of variance, but definitely also because of leaks). Now that my swings seem to be bigger than what I get to spend each week, I'm easily worried. I now realise that, based on a loss of -2BB/100 hands it is not easy to tell whether someone is a bad player or not.

      Now with the advice given by various people and the examples of winrates of fellow SSSers, I am confident that I can be a winning player if I deploy the strategies correctly. I've already cut down the c-bets and I realise that I lose less in pots which I were to lose anyway and when I do c-bet, I will possibly be more successful.

      Thank you all.
    • thazar
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      5k hand is such a small sample and in no way representative

      I'd say a representative sample should at the very least > 50K and preferably > 100K.

    • MrLuckbox
      Joined: 06.01.2011 Posts: 6
      I dont think it matters how you lose if you are just unluck you dont want to be a 0.1bb/100 winner anyway.

      I think it is a good habit to have every day you lose or week do some extra study what went wrong and dont just say "well i must have been running very bad"

      I heard phil ivey is very good at this.