[NL2-NL10] NL 10 AK call on the flop

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)      
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $3.16
      Hero:
      $13.22

      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K:spade: , A:heart:
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.15) T:spade: , 2:club: , Q:spade: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP2 raises to $2.66 (All-In), Hero calls $1.86.

      Turn: ($6.47) 7:spade:
      River: ($6.47) 6:club:


      Final Pot: $6.47

      Is it easy call or I still can fold?
  • 17 replies
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I'd fold. Don't think you have enough odds to call here.

      And I wouldn't contibet on the flop either, I don't like its texture.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      I call.
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      Originally posted by Thorsten77
      I call.
      Hello Thorsten77...
      Could you elaborate a bit on your answer? As I see it, the pf check/call can well mean small pockets. He reraised on the flop so he probably has hit something.
      I cannot see the reasons to call.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      11 outs, 1 runnerrunnerflush, one straight draw, and two overcards. 186 to call for 461. pot odds are 2.47:1 chance to hit is 41.72%, you need pot odds 1.39 to call.

      However, Aq and Kq are likely:

      31.45 to hit: you need pot odds: 2.17:1 to call

      but o noooo, he has trips!

      20.35 to hit, you need pot odds: 3.9:1

      So your pot odds need to be 2.47 overall, and most of the time villain hits one pair, so you have to call, because trips are the only holding where you get bad odds on.
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      3 kings + 3 aces + 4 jacks = ten outs. -4/5 outs because of flush, and possibility of KQ / AQ in front of us. ==> 5/6 outs no?
      around 20-25% to win, not enough to call i guess?

      Why would we call? I don't understand
      edit: as we have a drawing hand, i don't understand: 4 : 1 against 1.86 + 2.75 : 1.86 (around 2.5 : 1), don't have the pots odds? Or did i miss / misunderstand anything?
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      against Kq/aq you still have 31percent chance to win, what are you talking about with 20-25? you get 20-25 against trips only. 5 outs is 20.35percent.
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      we don't know what our opponent have in hand.

      If he has KQ or AQ, then we are behind if we hit one of our A or K, we don't know which one, so i take 2-3 outs off. We don't want to see a J, K or A of spade, so 3 outs less to our outs.

      Don't we have 5-6 outs here? Moreover I can't understand why you make 3 equations to take a decision without taking then together

      With 5-6 outs we are beteween 20 and 25% win, that's 4:1 to 3:1. I call it 4:1, and we have around 2.5 : 1, I never call. Even with 3:1 you can't call. I just can't understand where this is an obvious call.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      ok, ill do this more clear then:

      fold: whatever holding he has, you win 0, you lose 0

      call and win: you win 461cts.

      call and lose: you lose 186cts.


      first one is clear, now for the calls:

      He can have:

      trips: 4.8 outs, 4 gutshot, 1 runnerrunnerflush. 20percent chance to win

      Aq/Kq: 7.8 outs: 4 gutshot, one runnerrunner flush, and one overcard, if he has hit his queen, you have at least one high card, because he cant have the king, queen AND ace, because he only has 2 hole cards: 31percent to win, POT ODDS.

      straight draw: Kj or J9, you are in front, and one of his livecards is a straight for you, and one of his livecards is a livecard for you too, so he has 2 livecards, +7OESD outs, minus one livecard and 50percent of the other livecard outs, so he has 13- 3 - 1.5= 8.5 outs, so you are in front. Pot odds!

      actually, trips or an AA are the only things where you don't get odds against. And against KQ and AQ, you have 7.8 outs, that's the flaw in your calculation! you even get the right odds to call against KK!
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      You count runnerrunnerFD? For 0.8 out as i can see. Most of the time i never count this because our opponnent can also have runnerrunner draws that might outdraw us, but okay.

      You don't take into consideration the probability with wich he may own one or another hand?
      J9 is really unlikely, KJ just possible if he's loosy... AK / AQ are really likely, trips too, AA too.

      3 trips possible, 1 AA, 2 AK/AQ, and possibility of 1 KJ (J9 seems strange to our raise PF, and remember J9 of spades wants money in).

      you have: 3/7 *0.2 + 1/7 *(winagainstAA) + 2/7 * 0.31 + 1/7 * 0.25
      against AA we only have 4 outs. I don't count the runnerrunnerFD since he can have the A of spades ==> around 18% right?

      (3*0.2 + 0.18 + 2*0.31 + 0.25)/7 = 1.65/7 = 0.23
      (total probability of winning given the probability of vilain holding each type of hand)

      So 23% of winning. let's call it 25%, we need 3:1 pot odds and we have 2.5 : 1, i never call.

      Moreover, i didn't take into acount the possibility of two pairs, the hands agaisnt which we have 7 outs (QJ for example, with which our opponent may be very likely to bet)

      In fact, the problem i have with your calculations is that you see okay i'm behind against trips and ahead against other things, but you never take into acount the probability he has trips, TPTK or TPGK, flush draw, TP + OESD ...etc..., and this sounds very important to me. "I don't care being ahead a hand my opponent is not likely to hold", that's the idea i have in mind.

      Sorry for my english. I hope you don't feel "attacked", i just want to discuss this point, in a constructive way, not to prove anything. Thanks.

      DoigteurFou
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      ok, i don't understand you at all. You say i don't take tptk etc in account, but i actually did, and you have odds against tptk! thats my point. The most likely hands are kq or aq, and against those you have proper odds!

      you can't say: 3 trips possible, and count them as if they have the same likelyhood as kq or aq, because for every qq you get, you get 4 aq's! Because AA is unlikely, because villain would prob have raised, and qq is unlikely, because villain would probably have raised, its even more likely that he has kq or aq.

      so in my calculation, he has 2 trips (no odds), 4 aq's (odds) and 4 kq's (odds). Then there is the less likely kj (odds), lets count 1 of those, and one 4-flush with 1 pair or sumtin (odds). Then we can count for 1 pair and no overcard (qj) which is not so likely either. Then you see:

      2*.2+8*.3+1*.6+1*.3= 3.7

      3.7 : 12 = 0.30833333333333333333333333333333


      = POT ODDS

      you shouldn't be so afraid, you have odds more then you think. That is a general rule i learnt from watching tv, ak with a gutshot has a lot more equity then you would think, and you can't be that afraid for trips, because they are kinda uncommon.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Vau, a lot of discussion. Don´t know if you are playing at NL 10 level, but mostly player raise with AQ, TT+. He is quite shortstack, so I´ll probably put him Qx type of hand. And I found out on that case I have to call. So thanks to nice discussion, he didn´t have two pair, set or even QK:) (and they mostly don´t)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      And I found that that on that case I have to call.


      good call! :)
    • DoigteurFou
      DoigteurFou
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,528
      Effectively, i wanted to get all more simple, but i forgot there were 4x more XY then XX. You're right.

      Thanks for that discussion, i'll remember your thing about AK high + gutshot.

      Sorry if i flooded a bit too much that topic (and burst your patience gniark!).
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      Hello guys,

      I´ve raised the question, because I couldn´t see the reasons to call and I still don´t, because the fact is that you have 1:2,47 pot odds and even if you bring the runnerrunner flush into consideration ( which to me is a bit farfetched), the 11 outs only give you 3.27:1, so...fold ;)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      i opened for a judge again. Don't get me wrong, i'm not 100percent sure about this hand, a call is just what my play would be. However, i think this situation is interesting enough for the discussion and another hand judge (or a explanation from a handjudge).
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      A great discussion is going on here :)

      First of all, when I analyzed the hand, I made a rough estimation and in such a spot my default play is to call because of reasonable pot odds. But let's analyze the situation more mathematically.

      We are getting pot odds of 4,61:1,86 or 2,48:1. This means that we need to win in 1/(2,48+1) = 28,75% of the cases.

      Now lets take a look at our equity. Which range do you give the small stack. In my experience, I'd give him a range like 22+,AQ,KQ,AK (I did not take SCs like 6:s7 into account - they would result in a higher equity of Hero). Given this range, we get the following results (using Pokerstove):


      100,980 games 0.010 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

      Board: Ts Qs 2c
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 64.057% 59.72% 04.34% 60304 4380.50 { 22+, AQs+, KQs, QJs, AQo+, KQo, QJo }
      Hand 1: 35.943% 31.61% 04.34% 31915 4380.50 { AhKs }


      Our equity of 36% is much larger than the needed 28,75%. Maybe you argue that I chose a too wide range. Well, in my experience players with such stacks don't need to nuts to put all of their chips into the middle. They make the moves with Top Pairs as well as with bottom pair or draws. However, we can also make a kind of scenario analysis: Lets assume Villain only pushes with Sets or TP - I definitely think that this is way to conservative, but we want to see how our equity is against this range.


      44,550 games 0.005 secs 8,910,000 games/sec

      Board: Ts Qs 2c
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 72.121% 71.81% 00.31% 31993 137.00 { QQ+, TT, 22, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo }
      Hand 1: 27.879% 27.57% 00.31% 12283 137.00 { AhKs }
      We have 27,9% equity so even in such a worst case scenario we would be very close to the required equity. Hence, I think a call is the best play.

      Is the way how I calculated this stuff clear or should I elaborate on something?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Never seen short stack who limp/calls with TT+, or AK:) I think you gave him a little too large calling range