[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - AA 3b pot

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($218)
      BB ($62.05)
      UTG ($112)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      Hero ($65.75)
      BTN ($97.30)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: A:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $6.25, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $4.75

      FLOP ($13.25) 7:club: J:spade: T:club:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG raises to $106 (AI), Hero folds

      UTG wins $29.70

      villain relative unk 33/30/inf, wts 21, 68 hands
      Notwithstanding good spr, think we have to dump it here?
      Easy laydown?
  • 6 replies
    • franeczek
      franeczek
      Global
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Though spot. You have A :club: so you block draw combos which sucks. Efective stacks are 130bb so I like your preflop raise.
      Frankly speaking I don't see any hand that he would do it for value. The problem is that you have around 60% equity vs draws and you are nearly dead vs set.


      Board: J:spade: T:club: 7:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.90%  48.43%   0.47% { KK-TT, 77, KQs, JTs, 98s }
      CO     51.10%  50.63%   0.47% { AsAc }


      Hard to find range for Villian to call 3-bet OOP so I don't know if my range isn't way off ( I added some SC but I don't know if it is ok)+ I don't know how he plays QQ,KK in such spot. Does he 4-bet or he just call??
      even if I discount KK from his range it is close to call.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      bump for Kaitz
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Originally posted by franeczek
      Board: J:spade: T:club: 7:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.90%  48.43%   0.47% { KK-TT, 77, KQs, JTs, 98s }
      CO     51.10%  50.63%   0.47% { AsAc }


      Since you have 50% equity vs a nuts range, get it in.

      He shouldn't even have 98s/JTs in his range here, but arguably he shouldn't have a 3bet calling range here at all, so yeah.

      But really, you can't fold this against someone with these stats.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I would need more stats there to make a call. I only see him on KcQc or a 12+outer ( even though I don't see many) and mostly a set, many play JJ, TT that way calling preflop OOP and his CRAI makes some sense because very few have the discipline to fold KK,AA there.
      Thinking about your perceived range you're not barelling your air imo and so he doesn't get any value from that, he is only getting value from you overpairs + draws which you are both more happily getting it in now rather than on the turn ( draws beacuse of the eq, overpairs because he knows that many cards will scare you).
      Anyway he might just be a fish afraid of you having a 9 and afraid of an 8 so he is pushing it in to finally win a pot with his set :)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If he would c/r smaller to 20$ I think you see a lot more times sets than facing all-in shove. 33/30 really doesn´t want to protect his hand, but rather want to increase his fold equity, so aces should be way ahead his c/rai range on that board
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I considered he would be "bad" enough to just shove his sets as well as his draws (since by shoving it looks like a draw). Hard to know in this case I guess...