[NL2-NL10] 1 hand NL 100$ - freeplay- straight draw

    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) by Hand Converter CG

      Button ($33.75)
      Hero ($16.00)
      BB ($25.60)
      UTG ($93.50)
      UTG+1 ($102.80)
      UTG+2 ($119.60)
      MP1 ($103.75)
      MP2 ($42.85)
      MP3 ($161.40)
      CO ($107.95)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 5:club: , 5:heart: .
      4 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, Hero completes, BB checks.

      Flop: ($5) 6:spade: , 3:spade: , 4:heart: (5 players)
      Hero bets $3.5, BB calls $3.50, MP2 calls $3.50, MP3 calls $3.50, Button calls $3.50.

      Turn: ($22.50) A:diamond: (5 players)
      Hero bets $11.5 (All-In), BB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds.

      Final Pot: $34

      Flop: I have second pair and OESD, quite solid hand I guess... Since the board is drawy I decided to protect it against flush draws...

      Turn: Well, here I thougth my odds are good, since pot is twice bigger than my stack and I need only two callers two justify my call. Basically, here only an ace or overpair could call me, so I thought If I can make flush draws fold I will have more clean outs and can possibly outdraw overpairs and aces.
  • 6 replies
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      You explained it well. :) Good, I like it.
    • Eyeshield77
      Eyeshield77
      Black
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 2,237
      I'm against this play.

      Middle pair with OESD has only 10 outs minus 3 flush outs. We can assume that we have only about 8 outs. It's CF flop.

      Turn is also no good. You need two callers to justify your outs, but, for example, if after you someone with overpair call, flush draws will have right pot odds to call and you have only 7 outs then and need one more caller. Flush draws also can call, hoping for more callers and implied odds from them. Then it's CF turn of CC minibet on turn.

      Fold equity against 4 players with the bet this size I'd put around zero, but looks like this one is exeption.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      nice point !

      if I get 2 callers (overpair and FD) my pot odds are 4:1, so 20% of equity required. I know ist quite hard to simulate 5way flop, but nevertheless:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47.614 % 47.614 % 0.000 % 52.386 % 8h8d
      Player 2: 16.675 % 16.675 % 0.000 % 83.325 % 5h5c
      Player 3: 35.711 % 35.711 % 0.000 % 64.289 % JsTs

      So in the worst case scenario its -EV, however, I think on this board I have some fold equity against overpairs and top pairs, because of an Ace and 2 suited board. I don`t think BB or MP2 are calling here with pairs. They could had aces thoug... anyway, I don`t think it`s that bad, but very marginal, here I have to agree...
    • Eyeshield77
      Eyeshield77
      Black
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 2,237
      No, it's not margnal, it's totally -EV. After 4 callers on flop aces or sets are very likely, especially sets with this flop. There is really too much hands that can call us and I still think that FE is zero.

      Maybe not zero, but definitely not enough to cover difference between 20% and 16.675%. Also two callers is not worst case, the worst case is one caller with set or overpair.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by Eyeshield77
      No, it's not margnal, it's totally -EV. After 4 callers on flop aces or sets are very likely, especially sets with this flop. There is really too much hands that can call us and I still think that FE is zero.
      well, I don`t think we can figure it out, because if we start putting them on different ranges my equity is likely to increase for 1-2%. Anyway, I agree that probably I shouldn`t play it against unknow opponents.
    • Eyeshield77
      Eyeshield77
      Black
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 2,237
      As I said, the worst case is when you have an answer only from Aces or overpair.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 77.273 % 77.273 % 0.000 % 22.727 % 8h8d
      Player 2: 22.727 % 22.727 % 0.000 % 77.273 % 5h5c

      With aces it's the same.

      For this situation you need equity 25%.

      Well, looks like it's not really that bad as I thought about it. :)

      But about "increase on 1-2%". You must know, that differentce between 20% and 16.675% is not 3.325%, it's 16% (=3.325/20 * 100%) and this gap FE in this case can't make through.