[NL2-NL10] 89s NL10 FR

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      After my opponent bets .85 on the flop can I get him to fold Tx's and underpairs or draws? I thought I could.

      Opponent 38/8/8.33 over 50 hands so played him as an unknown as I dont think reading into stats over a small sample is a good idea.

      I put his range on FD's 22+, Tx's, Overpairs, mid-low pairs. As well as some bluffs and semi bluffs like draws AX KX that he DB's the flop with.

      If I put my opponent all in do we use the same equity calc, i.e

      amount to call / total pot including our bet = sum x 100 = equity?

      , so in this instance it would be:

      2.94/6.73= 0.45 x 100 = 43%

      Against the above range I am ahead anyway but just interested to know if the maths is correct? Even against the worst case scenarios only

      i.e sets nut/higher flush draws, sets and overpairs etc

      I am still like 40%

      After I pair the 9 on the turn I guess this would be a pretty standard bet/push on the turn if it had not gone bet/raise/call on the flop and instead had been check/call or bet/call?

      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: $7.31
      BB: $3.34
      UTG: $5.35
      UTG+1: $14.12
      MP: $5.85
      MP+1: $5.08
      CO: $2.00
      Hero (BTN): $13.89

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8:club: 9:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.85, 2 players) T:club: 2:club: 6:heart:
      BB bets $0.85, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $1.65

      Turn: ($5.85, 2 players) 9:spade:
      BB bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44

      River: ($6.73, 2 players) 5:club:

      BB shows 6:diamond: 6:club: (Three of a Kind, Sixes) (PreFlop 50%, Flop 66%, Turn 75%)
      Hero shows 8:club: 9:club: (Flush, Ten High) (PreFlop 50%, Flop 34%, Turn 25%)
      Hero wins $6.40
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello muel294,

      First of all, against short-stacks you can even raise smaller, $0,30. And if I am planning to ship it then do it on flop, to get more fold equity, but likely what doesn't matter since he is betting into us that big, he will likely Call the shove anyways. But still shove it on flop. And yes, your equity calculation is right, I'd say we need 44% equity to make it profitable. And we near that get, against worst case, unless we put him directly only on set. But wouldn't wrong either, if you just fold it there to avoid variance. :)

      Best regards.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      I intended to put him all in on the flop but didnt bet right but I think I essentially put him all in

      cheers