[NL20-NL50] [FR] AQs nl25

    • franeczek
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1110039
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $25.41
      UTG: $9.47
      UTG+1: $25.37
      UTG+2: $12.06
      MP1: $27.34
      Hero (MP2): $27.32
      CO: $10.98
      BTN: $24.65
      SB: $14.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Q :club: A :club:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($2.10) 7 :club: 8 :spade: J :club: (4 players)
      BB bets $0.25, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BB raises to $6.60, Hero calls $5.10

      Turn: ($15.30) 5 :heart: (2 players)
      BB bets $18.31, Hero folds

      Villian is 10/3/12 after 512 hands. I check raise flop for value but with his stats when he re-raise it sucks. I thought that with the odds he gave me it is worth to try to hit my flush outs on turn. Should I jam flop even vs such a nit? /fold when he re-raise???
  • 2 replies
    • i5bet72o
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      Well imo he almost always has a set here (occasionally a str8) so i dont think jamming the flop is really a option vs this player.
      Odds of hitting a flush on the turn: 18%
      Equity with a flush:84%
      Lets Assume he shoves every turn
      So u r risking $5.1 to win $28.76
      So u must hit the flush 5.1/((28.76+5.1)x0.84)=0.179
      therefore it is a very marginal b/c on the flop.
      btw I am not 100% if my math is correct.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If you don´t think he is ever bet/3-betting flop with flushdraws then b/c is fine. You´re just getting all-in 32% equity. At the same times I won´t really fold to 3-bet, since you´re ip so you likely get paid if you hit your flush and also he can give you free turn cards with sets if turn is 9 or T