[NL2-NL10] nl20sh AKs flush draw and overcards

    • aanty2000
      aanty2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2007 Posts: 484
      Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10/$0.20BB (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

      BB ($21.88)
      MP2 ($22.08)
      MP3 ($18.29)
      CO ($36.80)
      Button ($19.40) (Hero)
      SB ($13.04)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with A:spade: , K:spade:
      1 folds, MP3 raises to $0.80, 1 folds, Hero raises to $2.40, SB calls $2.30, 2 folds

      Flop: 6:spade: , Q:club: , 3:spade: ( $5.8 )
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.20, SB raises All-In $10.64, Hero calls $7.44,

      Turn: A:heart: ( $27.08 )


      River: 9:spade: ( $27.08 )


      Final Pot: $26.08
  • 10 replies
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      easy call for me. Flushouts will save you from any hand, and he could easily do this with kq or aq, so you get overcardouts too.

      NL 10 AK call on the flop
    • venus57
      venus57
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2007 Posts: 13
      Well, dunno.
      With the flush draw You have 9 outs after the flop.
      Add 3 aces and 3 kings (to give You overpair(s)), that's 15 outs.
      These outs give You about 55% chance of winning with the showdown.

      For me, this is not an all-in situation. Bled too many times with flush draws, and overcards. Won't risk my stack when the chances are almost 50-50.

      Even if You get one of those overcards with the turn or river, any set will still beat You, if You don't hit the flush.

      Venus
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I think the hand was well played. I'd bet a little more on the flop though.

      After he pushes you have to call. You're getting good odds to call here.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by venus57
      Well, dunno.
      With the flush draw You have 9 outs after the flop.
      Add 3 aces and 3 kings (to give You overpair(s)), that's 15 outs.
      These outs give You about 55% chance of winning with the showdown.

      For me, this is not an all-in situation. Bled too many times with flush draws, and overcards. Won't risk my stack when the chances are almost 50-50.

      Even if You get one of those overcards with the turn or river, any set will still beat You, if You don't hit the flush.

      Venus
      To call here, he only needs an equity of around 28%. Worst possible scenario is... he's against a set and has 25% equity. Of course, villain could be pushing here with AQ and KQ (as well as other hands like KK and AA, but unlikely).

      With villain's hand range being KQ, AQ, QQ, 66 and 33. Hero's equity is 38%, making the call right. If I put in AA and KK, it goes up to 39%.

      But 66, 33, AA and KK are unlikely. So I'm reducing his hand range to AQ, KQ and QQ. Hero's equity is now 42%.

      I decided to reduce villain's range just a little bit more, just AQ and QQ this time. Hero's equity is 40%.

      My conclusion: In this situation, unless I can see my opponents cards and therefore, be absolutely sure he has a set, I have to call.
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      Easy call. And Venus if you don't call here you have a large gap in your play book that will loose you a lot of money. You can't put in more then a third of your opponents stack and then fold in these situations and you have to look beyond the size of his raise. Just because it's a big raise you can't discount the size of the pot and your equity. Never play with scared money and always think in equity. And you can't count the aces and kings as full outs hardly even as half outs haven't done any calculations but I doubt that we are better then 40:60. Even with that in mind it's a clear call
    • Peter87
      Peter87
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2006 Posts: 13,565
      nh. you have a big draw (fd + ocs) in a reraist pot => bet/call. but your contibet could be a bit bigger
    • venus57
      venus57
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2007 Posts: 13
      Still don't agree with You guys, sorry.
      SB has about 70% of my stack.
      It this weren't an all-in, I might take the risk.

      Venus
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by venus57
      Still don't agree with You guys, sorry.
      SB has about 70% of my stack.
      It this weren't an all-in, I might take the risk.

      Venus
      When villain goes all-in there's $19.64 in the pot and it will cost hero $7.44 to call, so his getting 2.64-to-1 odds to call here, he only needs to win this hand around 27.47% of the time to make this call profitable. And as I explained in a previous post, unless you're absolutely sure villain has a set, you have to call here. Of course you'll never 100% sure, so it's an easy call.

      It doesn't matter if you're going all-in or not, in the long run, folding here will cost you money.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      deja vu...
    • nowyouseeme
      nowyouseeme
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2007 Posts: 69
      im all in here every day of the week.I agree with the above, dont play with scared money. This is the crux, the move, the danger, the game we play, it is these moves that make our money. And if we dont hit, our bankroll takes the toil, we reload and next time we make the same move.

      jesus, that sounds like a black and white advert for fulltilt poker.